East coast trough and area S of Puerto Rico

[boca]

The area South of PR is moving slowly west and the east coast trough is supposed to amplify briefly on Tues /Wed. I thinking that as the area by PR moves west it will be pulled northward due to the trough along the east coast. any thoughts on this.

[boca]

I'm suprised no one commented on this feature which I think will give S FL additional rain on Tues/Wed timeframe.

[NDG]

Yeah, it looks like the trough will pick up some that moisture from the Caribbean wave, good thing this is just a wave.
But S FL will quickly dry up as soon as Thursday as the Atlantic ridge starting moving in as the trough lifts up. Looks like NW FL and the northern gulfcoast will stay wet during the end of the week.

[gatorcane]

Boca, the East Coast trough is going to be nowhere near strong enough to influence the movement of the convection South of Puerto Rico. The wave will slide happily to the south of South Florida and a ridge will build back in later in the week keeping us in the easterly wind flow direction with African Dust as NWS Miami states:

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE RIDGE NOSES FULLY BACK INTO THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SAL AND DRY AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZY SKIES
AND DRIER CONDITIONS EAST COAST...BUT CONVECTION CONTINUING EACH
DAY FOCUSED INTERIOR/GULF COAST ON THE GULF/LAKE BREEZES

No only that, but the tropical wave is interacting with a ULL in the vicinity which is enhancing convection at the moment. As the wave moves west it will more than likely lose its convection you are seeing now. However, I think the SW windflow ahead of the EC trough will bring some widespread numerous showers and thunderstorms to SE Florida for Mon. and Tues.

[Recurve]

Last night was the first time I heard Miami weathermen say the PR tropical wave would bring rain to south Florida in the Tues-Wed timeframe. Forecasts did seem to indicate some northward pull on the moisture, seems like that would be the influence of the cyclonic flow over the East coast. John Girardi indicated a track from the vicinity of Puerto Rico curving quite a bit northward to South Florida.

Today's forecast discussion indicates the western flank of the ridge weakening because of troughiness to the north.

[gatorcane]

As expected the wave has gone poof because its not interacting with the ULL as it was yesterday.

[boca]

As expected the wave has gone poof because its not interacting with the ULL as it was yesterday.

Yep the wave went poof just like my money went playing blackjack at the Hard Rock.

[NDG]

It should become convective once again as it approaches the western Caribbean and the southern GOM as it interacts with the trough.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It should become convective once again as it approaches the western Caribbean and the southern GOM as it interacts with the trough.

From reading the AFDs from South Texas NWS offices, this is the wave that a couple of the models, notably 'The Crazy Uncle' CMC, develop into a possible Western GOMEX TC during the Independence Day weekend.

[NDG]

It should become convective once again as it approaches the western Caribbean and the southern GOM as it interacts with the trough.

From reading the AFDs from South Texas NWS offices, this is the wave that a couple of the models, notably 'The Crazy Uncle' CMC, develop into a possible Western GOMEX TC during the Independence Day weekend.

You are correct.