Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[Ed Mahmoud]

I believe that a whole 7 TS/hurricanes have developed in the Carib in July.

The Carib is just not favorable for development during July. If this is to develop, it needs to before reaching the Carib

I do recall the old "John Hope" rule, if not at least a TD by the islands, probably won't be one before the Western Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Zero hour of the GFS is up.


Bed time...

[Derek Ortt]

I believe that a whole 7 TS/hurricanes have developed in the Carib in July.

The Carib is just not favorable for development during July. If this is to develop, it needs to before reaching the Carib

I do recall the old "John Hope" rule, if not at least a TD by the islands, probably won't be one before the Western Caribbean.

I am NOT a believer in the John Hope Rule at all. In fact, in recent years, we have seen that the eastern Carib can be quite favorable for genesis and intensification

[RL3AO]

0z GFS

H+18: Low off the coast of Africa.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_018l.gif

H+30: 1008mb low.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif

[RL3AO]

GFS 0z develops it right off the coast and then starts to curve it around 30W.

[SouthFloridawx]

Cycloneye,

Where did you get that far out groovy WV picture from? I tried to search the LSU site and couldn't find it.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[RL3AO]

Could be blue, but they don't mention time.

[SouthFloridawx]

[NDG]

Looking good so far tonight, convergence is good over warm waters and UL divergence is also good, no question that this will survive as it tracks westward south of the CV island at least for the next 72 hours, IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

Is the next invest, 92L?

[RL3AO]

Lets see if it can hold together over the next 24 hours. If it does, we could have 92L by tomorrow (Wednesday).

[Cyclenall]

MiamiensisWx, please don't leave these forums, your writings are excellent and I enjoy reading them. I don't think many understand why you won't be posting again. I would ignore any attempts from posters trying to downplay your thoughts.

As for this wave, I do not believe it will form into a tropical cyclone within the next 96 hours. It might form later on just before it reaches the Caribbean IMO. I just feel it will be stronger then any other wave this season, as it travels across the Atlantic.

[SouthFloridawx]

I'll be the first one to say it. Even if something comes out of this, I see a eventual Northern movement safely out to sea... Still a little early in July for a long tracker to make it farther than 50-60 west, south of 20 N.

[NDG]

I don't understand why can somebody take a poster serious who said that this tropical wave's axis was near Nigeria late Monday evening and another poster who said "head for the hills".

[Cyclenall]

Invest 92L as just been declared! That was quick, lol.

[weatherwindow]

right you are, cyclenall....10.8n-16.5w...1011mb..per nrl...rich

[KWT]

Yep we have Invest 92L for this system, a early Cape Verde invest. Does look pretty good right now. As for the Caribbean its looking like a mute point really because its not even going to make the Caribbean from the way the models are, should track to the north of them.

[Meso]

Looking good..

Large Image

[HURAKAN]

Invest 92L now on "Active Storms."

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