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Yep though you never know about the ACE, I seem to recall they progged a below normal 2006 but el nino developed and blew that forecast.
Anyway still very deep convection present and it looks good the only problem may be that its close to Douglas right now. Still we could well see another invest out of this system sooner rather then later.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 92W N OF 5N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO. A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE WAVE NEAR 9N92W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE LOW MAY ACTUALLY BE ELONGATED JUST TO THE N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AND LOW FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE E SEMICIRCLE.