What are the chances close to home?

[HURAKAN]

Can we get a low pressure to form? A lot of convection is being already generated. Wind shear may be a problem, of course.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is definitely a lot of convection out there in the Gulf. We will just have to watch it closely and see if any of it can persist long enough to spin up. Chances are high that we will wind up not seeing anything out of this, but given the fact that it is July, and that the waters are warm, and that the wind shear is only in the 10-20 knot range in the central Gulf, it certainly wouldn't be impossible for something to try and form.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

There is some decent convection along the boundary, indeed looking at shear I'd tend to think if anything was going to form it'd be near the gulf waters to the east of Florida where there is moderate convection. There is also some interesting convection in the gulf and whilst ther eis some shear it may not be enough to prevent something from developing if any spin can form.

I suppose if we didn;t have 92L and an active EPAC this would get more attention.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Close up vis satellite shows impressive shearing taking place.

Bastardi is mildly interested in the Western Gulf, but when Bastardi has no model support at all for development (he does have some support for gradually falling pressure, but no development) he isn't right that often, in my experience.

[fwbbreeze]

pretty good pressure falls in west central gulf!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[Stratosphere747]

[Ed Mahmoud]

pretty good pressure falls in west central gulf!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

I don't know, looks like todays diurnal minimum is higher than yesterday's minimum.