I feel like the models were once again too head strong with strengthening in the beginning of here life. As we now see that she is really only holding her own. With cooler SST's and some dry air in here way I don't feel like she will get any stronger and will just hold her current intensity. Now, here comes the fun part....There is forecasted to be a weakness in the ridge, but the models are slowly coming off the idea of a big N or NE movement early and waiting until later in the coming days. In fact some models are slowly moving away from the big N movement at all. After looking at the GFS and EURO H5 charts it appears to me that she will more than likely miss that first opportunity to escape out into the middle atlantic. I think this is really caused by not being strong enough to truely feel the weakness in the ridge. Another intersting note is when she comes up to the shear zone, (at 200mb) the shear is initially very favorable for good outflow and maybe allow her to ramp up in strength. Also, at that point she will once again be under the ridge at 500mb. Any comments always welcomed.