EPAC: two areas of disturbed weather

[tolakram]

I'll make a thread so it can be locked later.



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[KWT]

Yep some decent deep convection there, may well be our next EPAC invest if it can keep this up over the next 12hrs. Wonder if it may do anything more then the last depression in that basin.

[tolakram]

Shear has been decreasing but it still looks messy.

[KWT]

Yep shear is still present nearby though over the disturbance itself it doesn't actually look all that bad, certainly low enough for some slow development to occur.

[RL3AO]

Normally it is an invest by the time the NHC mentions it. Especially when they say development is possible.

[cycloneye]

508
ABPZ20 KNHC 082335
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY WILL SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

Floater is on top of this disturbance.Is still a mess there.

[tolakram]

Two areas now, but both are a mess.



ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

2. A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS DEVELOPING SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA ALSO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[RattleMan]

From SSD:

Code: Select all

  10/0545 UTC     7.8N   89.5W    T1.0/1.0          INVEST2
  09/2345 UTC    14.0N   96.8W    TOO WEAK           INVEST
  09/2345 UTC     8.4N   89.1W    T1.0/1.0          INVEST2
  09/1745 UTC    15.1N   96.2W    T1.0/1.0              INV
  09/0545 UTC    14.4N   96.4W    TOO WEAK           INVEST

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

This is now invest 98E.Thread locked.