The "Emily Effect"

[Frank2]

Just a quick post here - interesting to note that the GFS shows Bertha moving very slowly over the next 5 days, and, even shows it strengthening a third time while it meanders slowly, east-northeast of Bermuda:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

if this keeps up, it might leave a trough in the Western Atlantic similar to what happened after Hurricane Emily (1981) lingered north of Bermuda for many days, and, in fact, seemed to be responsible for "permanently" displacing the previously strong subtropical ridge well to the east for the remainder of that season:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1981 ... ummary.jpg

[KWT]

Its interesting though even by 180hrs you can see the ridge developing underneath the low as it moves out of the way. We will have to wait and see if we can get several hurricanes through the same weakness then it may set it up for longer but one lone hurricane going through will probably not cause too much of a hole, esp in July when the belt is typically pretty strong.

Lets not forget Emily 1981 was in early September, troughs tend to allow weakness far easier at that time of year, the fact that it takes several attempts to get Bertha out there shows that the upper troughs are not all that strong right now, if the CV wave forms like the models show I think its got a big chance of being a threat to at least the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Ah Frank we can only wish it were that easy.

The main season doesn't begin though for about 5 weeks. Bertha will be LONG gone by then. There is a good chance a nice ridge will build back in by then.

[Frank2]

What you both said is true, though it seems in the case of Emily that it set up a long-wave pattern that remained in place for the remainder of that season, and, as the track chart shows, allowed for the several major CV systems that formed after Emily to recurve further and further eastward (as the ridge moved eastward), which no doubt prevented what could have been a disasterous season to the west, so, interesting to note the similarity in at least the meandering of both systems, and, for at least now, the similarity when it comes to the displacement of the subtropical ridge...

Frank

[KWT]

Its true Frank if Bertha can hang around and we can get another hurricane through that weakness before it totally closes up then there is a chance it could at least hold for a little while. The problem is we are still a good 4 weeks from the main Cape Verde season...its a big ask to have a weakness hold that long without the ridge building back at this stage in the summer.

By the way I think the weakness was there anyway the whole way through evn beforeEmily, both Bret and Cindy tracked NE out to sea probably through the same weakness and the weakness was also probably used by Dennis as it exited the Carolinas.

Still we will have to wait and see what happens, I think Bertha's track won't be far off what many other systems take this season but I've always got a fear with these patterns that one will slip the net.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Frank if there is an effect that would recurve a storm in the last 300 years you would find it..LOL

The thing is you said this a few weeks again and i 100% agree with it.

"No 2 seasons are exactly the same"

So lets throw the Emily effect out the door today...

[Blown Away]

Emily's life was from 8/31/81 - 9/12/81.

[Cyclenall]

You should call it "The 2006 Atlantic Effect". For some reason I knew what this topic was about even though I have never heard of the "Emily Effect".

[Andrew92]

Well, it could happen that every Cape Verde storm recurves away from the U.S. just like Bertha did. But you can't rule out a homegrown storm sneaking into the Gulf of Mexico or riding up the East Coast from Florida up, like what Irene in 1999 nearly did.

Not to be frank (no pun intended), but I heard this same thing early in 2005 as well after a recurving storm (I think it was Franklin). It is true that all Cape Verde storms from there on out recurved....

But it didn't matter. The season was still active, and more importantly, where did Katrina come from? Rita? Wilma? They were homegrown.

The moral of the story is every Cape Verde storm could recurve, but homegrown storms can still occur in any given year. Maybe it didn't happen in 1981, but realisticallly it is pretty rare to never see even a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

-Andrew92

[Patrick99]

And then there's 1998. You had Bonnie and Danielle recurve near a similar location........then in mid-late September, Georges steadily churned W-WNW across the entire basin under a monster high. The weaknesses left by earlier systems did not hold up at all in that case.

[DanKellFla]

Ah Frank we can only wish it were that easy.

The main season doesn't begin though for about 5 weeks. Bertha will be LONG gone by then. There is a good chance a nice ridge will build back in by then.

Nahhh, she is the storm that just won't go away.

[Emmett_Brown]

If memory serves, Emily was a very big storm as well, much bigger than Bertha. Bertha likely wont leave as much of a dent in the ridge, and what it does leave should fill in well before the start of August. I think Bertha's weakness could recurve a storm that approaches in the next 7-14 days, but after that, shouldnt be a factor. Certainly doesnt appear to be a factor for early model runs of 94L.

[jinftl]

Plus Emily did not take place in mid-July like Bertha....Emily was smack dab in the heart of the season...8/31 - 9/12.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think what we need to do is wait and see....If 3 weeks from now, the conditions out in the Atlantic look like they do now, I think it's pretty obvious that it's going to be a very slow season. That's exactly what happened last year. We kept waiting and waiting and waiting and nothing really ever got going......If we are still waiting for our 'C' storm by Mid August, you obviously don't want to write the season off, but it could be a very dead year (which the economy won't mind) ..... We'll see what the next 3 weeks tell us......

Like one poster said though, no 2 seasons are alike,so we'll just wait and see if we are going to get going or not.