Wave Coming Behind 94L

[KWT]

Quite possibly Matt unless it decays in the next 12hrs, its got deep convection and there something interesting right on the southern side of that large mass of convection.

[cycloneye]

Matt sharp yes,look.Pass was at 4:18 AM EDT.

[KWT]

South of the deep convection however it should be noted still if it does gain lattiude like 94L did at this point then it will find itself in that deepconvection.
This is certainly Invest material IMO.

[Vortex]

This area is very suspicious this morning..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This area is much more favorable then 94L. I think its time to switch to watching this, let 94L die.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see 2 new invests today. One being this impressive wave and the other possibly forming somewhere in the NE Gulf of Mexico.

BTW - I am surprised that the NHC has yet to mention this area in their TWO. Hopefully they will address it at 2pm.

[hawkeh]

As others said this one seems to be doing better than 94L currently. Sure doesn't seem like July to me...

[Squarethecircle]

I would like to point out that being more favorable than 94L is not saying very much.

[Frank2]

It's at a very low latitude, however (between 4 and 8N) - it's a large ITCZ disturbance more than anything at this point...

[Praxus]

Kinda looks like august



But it is pretty low in latitude...

[wx247]

Convection looks to be waning right now. Let's see what happens the rest of the day...

[Ed Mahmoud]

After looking at convergence, divergence and shear maps EWG posted on Northeast GOMEX thread, and comparing satellite presentation, while the NE GOMEX is far from a lock to develop, it has a better chance than this does.


Yesterday, I thought a tropical storm reaching the mid Lesser Antilles, a path W-NW through the Caribbean to a point somewhere South of Cuba, and a turn Northwest across Cuba, coming out either side of Florida or maybe over South Florida, and a threat anywhere (depending on where it crossed Cuba) from near Mobile to Hatteras.

Now, I strongly suspect an open wave that crosses the Caribbean, hits Central America, and maybe pops in the Pacific, although the MJO phase isn't super-favorable.

The wave behind 94L also has a better chance to develop, based on presentation, shear, low level convergence, upper divergence and water vapor imagery.

The Northeast Gulf system could wind up an invest, maybe even a TD or weak storm, but I suspect it'll be more a beneficial rain maker than a threat. Too soon to tell about wave near 30ºW



Disclaimer: Unofficial, amateur, and not endorsed by Storm2K or the American Dental Association.

[RL3AO]

Not to get too technical, but if the NHC Analysis is correct, this isn't a wave.

[Frank2]

Yesterday, I thought a tropical storm reaching the mid Lesser Antilles, a path W-NW through the Caribbean to a point somewhere South of Cuba, and a turn Northwest across Cuba, coming out either side of Florida or maybe over South Florida, and a threat anywhere (depending on where it crossed Cuba) from near Mobile to Hatteras.

Now, I strongly suspect an open wave that crosses the Caribbean, hits Central America, and maybe pops in the Pacific, although the MJO phase isn't super-favorable

Ed,

Just a quick comment - that's why the old NHC policy of waiting before upgrading a system is a good policy. Yesterday's system could have been easily upgraded to a depression or more than a depression, only to be dowgraded this morning, so, per Dr. Frank's comments (not this Frank - LOL), he has a valid point...

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Well all the deep convection has gone, seems like as expected it was just a large burst of convection in the ITCZ that went just as soon as it arrived.