The Uper Level Low that tracked over the Yucatan ~ As it looks we could see some rapid growth in short order
Raw T# heading towards 4 , However look at the Clouds difference Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -63.6C
Looks healthy with little in the way of Constraint Limits that are only 0.2T/hour
The Flags have been on and off ~ They stay off this should be able to gain quickly
Thoughts anyone
===== ADT-Version 7.2.3 =====
--------Intensity------- -Tno Values-- ---Tno/CI Rules--- -Temperature-
Time Final/MSLPLat/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW Storm Location Fix MW
Date (UTC) CI MSLP /BiasAdj/(kts) 3hr Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Region Cloud Type (km) Lat Lon Mthd Score Comments
2008JUL20 154500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 7.34 -35.60 CRVBND N/A 18.37 84.15 FCST 0.0
2008JUL20 164500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 0.2T/hour ON OFF -68.36 -52.88 UNIFRM N/A 18.50 84.36 FCST 0.0
2008JUL20 174500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.7 3.0 3.2 0.2T/hour ON OFF -67.06 -63.58 UNIFRM N/A 18.65 84.58 FCST 0.0
eye cam
wind graph
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 JUL 2008 Time : 174500 UTC
Lat : 18:39:00 N Lon : 84:34:46 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -63.6C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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http://christodd.ipower.com/portals/ind ... topic=1898
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