Check this run out!

[Toni - 574]

Good morning to all,
Looking at the 06 GFS run this AM I am really confused . Please correct me if I am wrong. What I think I am seeing is very confusing compared to the offical forcast. I think the model has Claudette in the right position at the tip of the yucatan and then she takes her on up toward the central gulf, now look the model starts to slowly lose her,but seems to slowly drift her w. but now look at the E.trough at around 72 hrs. dips down to the GOM. MY question here is,why is the model losing her and why would she not be influenced by a trough this far S? Looks like she should really intensify once she gets into the GOM not disipate.
I need lots and lots of comments PLEASE!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

[Tip]

I'll take a stab at the question. First of all the 06z and 18z runs of the GFS are not as detailed as the 0z and 12z runs of the GFS from what other more knowledgeable posters have said in the past and may account for the model losing the system after 72hrs. Note that the 0z run doesn't lose it til 96hrs. As for the east coast trough not turning the storm more north, the 06z GFS builds a lobe of the Bermuda high at the surface under the trough into the GOM and pining the storm in the BOC at 78 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078s.gif

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I think the models are generally hosed on this run. There should be some changes. The GFS stalls Claudette in the western GOM until she nearly dissipates. Notice also that at hour 174 it develops a low in the central GOM then dissipates it (too far out in time but interesting). It also develops an African wave next week (as well as the Canadian) so we'll watch that. Let's watch Claudette and see what she may do, as she is gaining convection off the NE tip of the Yucatan. The reason the NHC has her missing the trough is cause she's still a bit far south. If she was still moving at 14 MPH I'd say she'd catch it. But she's also stalled right now....maybe thinking.