Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr Gray June Forecast=15*/8/4

[cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2008.pdf

They add that the number of named storms includes the first named storm Arthur,that is why I put the * beside the 15.They also dont rule out El Nino.

[KWT]

Wow we've alredy reached the June update, time has flown by!

Anyway yep they do leave the el nino option open but they are very havily in favor of cool neutral values remaining. All years they use as examples had above average ACE values, some seasons have been removed from the list like 1999.

[HURAKAN]

They way their forecasts have been performing over the past few years, they can't rule out anything. 15/8/4 is about the average between 95-07.

[OuterBanker]

No change in numbers. Analog years did change and the years used for this forecast are very kind to the Carolinas (no hits, lots of near misses). That part is good although landfall probs for most of zone 8 (as well as 3 and 6) are about 55% higher than normal on their landfall prob page. Doesn't make much sense using those analog years. Or are those years used more based on activity and not track patterns (always had a question which is used).

[DESTRUCTION5]

Why the *?

15 Storms on Steriods?

[cycloneye]

They say in the report that if a Weak El Nino develops,anyway it will be an active season like the ones below that had a Weak El Nino:

1951
1953
1969
2004

[Decomdoug]

"Why the *?"

Includes Author

[RL3AO]

"Why the *?"

Includes Author

Arthur. An author is a person who writes a book.

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but their credibilty is not what it use to be
especially when they make changes as the
season progresses. I think after what many of us have
seen the last 10 years we all know now that the numbers don't
mean much when it only takes one Katrina or Rita type to make it
a pretty active season for ANYONE.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Current Atlantic Basin Conditions
Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. These conditions have trended even more favorable than were observed in early April. Our early June Atlantic predictor (Predictor 1) calls for a very active hurricane season in 2008. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Waters off the coast of Iberia as well as the eastern tropical Atlantic are very warm right now (Figure 10). In addition, cool SST anomalies in the central tropical Atlantic have moderated considerably over the past month (Figure 11). Sea level pressures have been below average throughout most of the eastern Atlantic during the month of May (Figure 12).
DOESN'T SOUND GOOD. I HOPE EL NINO COMES.

[tolakram]

I'm sorry but their credibilty is not what it use to be
especially when they make changes as the
season progresses. I think after what many of us have
seen the last 10 years we all know now that the numbers don't
mean much when it only takes one Katrina or Rita type to make it
a pretty active season for ANYONE.

If you look at what they are trying to do I think the science is solid and worthwhile. Going back and looking at various inputs to try and predict the current season should eventually work, but it will take a while. What I object to is the way they present the data to the media.

[Ad Novoxium]

Why the *?

15 Storms on Steriods?

If Humberto and Lorenzo were any indication...

"Why the *?"

Includes Author

Arthur. An author is a person who writes a book.

Arthur Shakespeare?

[KWT]

Current Atlantic Basin Conditions
Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. These conditions have trended even more favorable than were observed in early April. Our early June Atlantic predictor (Predictor 1) calls for a very active hurricane season in 2008. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Waters off the coast of Iberia as well as the eastern tropical Atlantic are very warm right now (Figure 10). In addition, cool SST anomalies in the central tropical Atlantic have moderated considerably over the past month (Figure 11). Sea level pressures have been below average throughout most of the eastern Atlantic during the month of May (Figure 12).
DOESN'T SOUND GOOD. I HOPE EL NINO COMES.

The point about the cooler SSt's moderating and now even becoming above average in a lot of places is a very good one bodes wwell for the idea of a higher number of majors compared with average, indeed the zone between 30-40N is well above average and if that continues we could see stronger storms up those latitudes then normal, esp given the reasonable chances for recurvature to occur.

[HURAKAN]

If the analog years are truly a vision of the season ahead, it will be a rough season.

[KWT]

What does it look like if you use the years:

1951, 1961, 2000, and 2001

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

If the analog years are truly a vision of the season ahead, it will be a rough season.

So much for the analog years!!!

[RL3AO]

Yep.