Florida Rainy Season...

[Frank2]

...has been fairly regular this year - we've even started joking about the timing of the "first thunder" of the day (rumbling as I type this)...

A thunderstorm developed over this area last evening, and, one bolt struck the top of the building I live in - fortunately, I wasn't on the house phone at the time, because the phone was ruined by the power surge...

Too bad I wasn't driving a Delorean with a flux capacitor at 88 mph - I'd be back to the future (or in the hospital, depending)...

Seriously, though, the clap was about as LOUD as I've ever heard one - it made me jump, for sure...

What this means for the remainder of the hurricane season, I'm not sure, though the Bermuda high easterlies have been absent on most days, so, that usually means more recurving Atlantic systems...

We'll see...

Frank

[JonathanBelles]

I dont know where you are but this has been much wetter than normal. We havent had the normal sea breeze develop everyday. We've had a lot more rainy days than usual as well. Cristobal's cyclogenesis didnt help either. St. Pete was nearly 3" over for the month of July.

[Frank2]

I agree (I'm in Southeast Florida) - but Lake Okeechobee is still about 3' below normal (due to the SFWMD error of 2006 - I don't know if we'll ever make up for their error, which was based mostly on the irrational fear of another Katrina-type induced levee failure during the feared "above normal hurricane season of 2006", which thankfully never happened).

Blame it on those silly TWC "It Could Happen Tomorrow" programs (or, at least that way of thinking), that seems to make people worry and act needlessly, more than anything...

Frank

[gatorcane]

Frank,

The current weather pattern over South Florida is due to a light SW windflow at the low-levels as we are on the western extent of a strong subtropical ridge axis spanning the subtropical Northern Atlantic where the ridge axis is nearly over South Florida. Lack of Easterly windflow usually means T-storms in the afternoon on the E. Coast of Florida. Look for the ridge to nudge north over the weekend as a tropical wave axis passes by to our south which should swing the winds from SW to deep easterly by the end of the weekend.

I would put no faith in the current pattern as a hurricane protection pattern. In fact it would be more worrisome to me because Western Caribbean or SW Caribbean systems are equally as threatening to this area as Cape Verde-like system and are more likely to impact South Florida with weak bermuda Highs. So as those fronts start dropping down more frequently as we head into later September, things could be interesting in October especially (not to mention South Florida's prime hurricane month is October).

Nonetheless, I digress as October is far out and the long-wave pattern will flip-flop several times between now and then. Not only that but do recall that May was considerably dry in South Florida this year and although the correlation to rainfall in May and South Florida hurricane impacts shows conflicting evidence, Lushine suggest that there is a higher chance of a South Florida impact when rainfall in May is below a certain threshold which the major metro airports in Souther Floridawere below for this May.

What this could mean is that if the long-wave pattern featured a strong Western Atlantic ridge in May and it is expected to oscillate several times during a hurricane season, that the timing is such that by late August and September the long-wave pattern is back to the strong Bermuda High that existent in May

In actuality there are little known, supported correlations between the current pattern and South Florida hurricane hits.

[Frank2]

Yes, I know, and, Jim was a workplace friend of mine, but, I'm still not sure if his theory (based on past data) is correct every time, or is even still true, since the Earth's climate has changed so much over the past 100 years, so, what might have been true 50 or 25 years ago might not hold water (pardon the pun) today...

Also, a study was done during my time at the HRD (by an NCAR meteorologist) that indicated a "cement desert" mircoclimate might be forming along Southeast Florida, due to the massive amount of Earth that has been paved over during the past 70 years (per those satellite photos that show that ugly pale-colored cement "strip" down the Southeast Florida coastline)...

When I see that photo, it always makes me sad for what was lost...

[jinftl]

Rainfall amounts are very localized as we know in Florida in the summertime, but overall it has been quite dry compared to normal by me (east Fort Lauderdale)... rainfall stats by month at Fort Laud/Hollywood Airport (close to coast location)...

May-08 2.33" or 4.00" below normal
Jun-08 3.45" or 6.56" below normal
Jul-08 6.47" or 0.23" below normal

10.75" below normal for the 3-month period is dry by local standards!

[Blown Away]

What I've noticed is a lack of or very weak Bermuda High easterlies and this persistent SW flow. I don't ever recall this type of pattern lasting all summer so I expect we will see the BH get pumped up a little in the weeks to come. I guess there is a first for everything but I don't see the current SW flow pattern dominating as much as it has for the rest of the summer.

[Cookiely]

We've had much more rain than the last few seasons. Regular as clockwork around eleven in the morning to two in the afternoon.

[caneman]

We have been getting hammered with rain nearly everyday in July in Western Pinellas. It's funny because when the rain comes from the East it never seems to make it this far and are in almost drought like conditions but when it comes from the West........ Today we had nearly 3 inches and it seems that every day we get nearly 2 or 3 inches. I'm concerned if this pattern holds that one of those Carrib storms will hook right into West Florida. IS there any research to support that West Florida gets hit more with a pattern similar to this? Any one have any analog years? Thanks

[ronjon]

We have been getting hammered with rain nearly everyday in July in Western Pinellas. It's funny because when the rain comes from the East it never seems to make it this far and are in almost drought like conditions but when it comes from the West........ Today we had nearly 3 inches and it seems that every day we get nearly 2 or 3 inches. I'm concerned if this pattern holds that one of those Carrib storms will hook right into West Florida. IS there any research to support that West Florida gets hit more with a pattern similar to this? Any one have any analog years? Thanks

How about 2004. We had general troughiness through June, July, & mid-August. Afterward, the Atlantic ridge got stronger through the end of Sept. Not saying that's gonna happen this year, but these long wave patterns ususally don't persist the entire summer. I remember one particular strong trough on August 13th, 2004.

[gatorcane]

We have been getting hammered with rain nearly everyday in July in Western Pinellas. It's funny because when the rain comes from the East it never seems to make it this far and are in almost drought like conditions but when it comes from the West........ Today we had nearly 3 inches and it seems that every day we get nearly 2 or 3 inches. I'm concerned if this pattern holds that one of those Carrib storms will hook right into West Florida. IS there any research to support that West Florida gets hit more with a pattern similar to this? Any one have any analog years? Thanks

How about 2004. We had general troughiness through June, July, & mid-August. Afterward, the Atlantic ridge got stronger through the end of Sept. Not saying that's gonna happen this year, but these long wave patterns ususally don't persist the entire summer. I remember one particular strong trough on August 13th, 2004.

Indeed Ronjon, we had troughiness in 2004 until mid August and then rather quickly the long-wave pattern switched to a more E-W oriented Bermuda High with no troughs. So again what we see now has no bearing on the future long-wave pattern.

[rainydaze]

Only 3 words for me:

I LOVE IT!

[Sanibel]

Persisting SW winds here. Lack of rain because of it.

[JonathanBelles]

Return to SE flow by Sunday.

[Recurve]

Overall, last year was the anomaly for the Keys, with the Miami-area convective band seeming to park further south in summer, providing plenty of rain here. This year we're back to our more usual convective inhibition, SE winds that keep mainland convection from migrating this way, and lots of sinking air from surface ridges.

Very hard to gauge actual rainfall because KW and Marathon airports are the only official measures in the 125-mile-long chain of islands. Some islands, especially Marathon southward, seem to get more mesoscale convection and rainfall, while the Upper Keys have to depend on outflow boundary initiated convection or the typical late-night small cells migrating westward on the pre-dawn seabreeze.

I think, could be wrong, when we have a very troughy pattern that would encourage recurves off the east conus, the Keys get above average rainfall; when the Bermuda high is strong, we have less rainfall and a setup that favors later recurvature.

[Rainband]

More late days storms to time your watch by

[EDR1222]

I believe here in Melbourne we were less than an inch from setting a record for wettest July on record. Some people suspect that areas just west and southwest of the Melbourne International airport did receive significantly more rain than the NWS or airport locations. I think it ended up officially being the eighth wettest July with a little over 11 inches for the month.

The east coast troughs have definitely been keeping high pressure suppressed over Southern Florida with most days having a SW to W steering component, especially here along the east central Florida coast for the past month.

It will be interesting to see if the same pattern continues through August.