Alicia likely was NOT a cat 3

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim02.gif

I made this a new thread so that everyone can see this (especially those in Texas). Read the TCR of Alicia. Max recon winds according to the TCR were only 100KT at 850mb. That is consistent with a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane, similar to Dolly

[KWT]

Also means the Alicia comprasion becomes even more valid, very interesting Derek thanks for bringing this up!

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1983-prelim/alicia/prelim02.gif

I made this a new thread so that everyone can see this (especially those in Texas). Read the TCR of Alicia. Max recon winds according to the TCR were only 100KT at 850mb. That is consistent with a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane, similar to Dolly

I've been a proponent that Alicia wasn't a cat3.

Regardless this discussion is better in the off season as the comparison will skew what is truly going on with Edouard.

[CrazyC83]

I do agree with the analysis - at that moment it was probably 85 kt, and I think it strengthened a bit more to 90 kt at landfall as it was strengthening at a fairly solid rate in the hours before landfall. (A strengthening storm tends to bring winds down to the surface better, hence the significant wind damage).

Houston only got a Cat 1 (and a fairly weak one at that - probably about 75 kt) and it still caused significant damage there.

[Scorpion]

If Alicia was only a Cat 1/2 at landfall then Houston would have gotten TS winds

[Normandy]

It should be noted that most of metro Houston only recieved a High-End TS from Alicia.....there were NO reports of sustained 65 kt winds anywhere near downtown.

[hwego7]

It is still officially a 100kt cat 3 hurricane until the NHC says otherwise.

[Derek Ortt]

just becuase a report based upon methods that today we know are wrong is official, does not make it true

Unless there is some other recon data that I am unaware of and was not cited by the report, I can say with a very high degree of accuracy that Alicia was not close to a cat 3. If people want to believe it was, do not be surprised if a real 3 does far worse

[weatherguru18]

The Coast Guard Cutter "Buttonwood" recorded a 123 mph wind gust with sustained winds of (I wanna say) 96 mph. Hobby reported a peak gust (I think) of 99 mph. That would make Alicia a strong 1.

[CrazyC83]

The Coast Guard Cutter "Buttonwood" recorded a 123 mph wind gust with sustained winds of (I wanna say) 96 mph. Hobby reported a peak gust (I think) of 99 mph.

Those still support only a low-end Category 2.

[hwego7]

[fasterdisaster]

Some Category 1

[CrazyC83]

This is just my personal thoughts - it is NOT an official best track. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is what I believe Alicia's real intensity at each point was:

15/1200 - 27.3/90.5 - 25 kt - 1010mb - Tropical depression
15/1800 - 27.2/91.0 - 30 kt - 1008mb
16/0000 - 27.1/91.5 - 35 kt - 1007mb - Tropical storm
16/0600 - 27.0/92.0 - 45 kt - 1005mb
16/1200 - 27.1/92.4 - 50 kt - 1002mb
16/1800 - 27.3/92.8 - 55 kt - 998mb
17/0000 - 27.4/93.3 - 60 kt - 991mb
17/0600 - 27.7/93.7 - 65 kt - 985mb - Hurricane
17/1200 - 27.9/94.2 - 65 kt - 982mb
17/1800 - 28.1/94.5 - 70 kt - 979mb
18/0000 - 28.4/94.8 - 80 kt - 971mb
18/0600 - 28.9/95.0 - 85 kt - 964mb
18/1200 - 29.7/95.5 - 75 kt - 967mb
18/1800 - 30.5/96.0 - 50 kt - 981mb - Tropical storm
19/0000 - 31.5/96.7 - 35 kt - 994mb
19/0600 - 32.4/97.4 - 30 kt - 1001mb - Tropical depression
19/1200 - 33.3/98.0 - 25 kt - 1005mb
19/1800 - 34.4/98.5 - 20 kt - 1008mb
20/0000 - 35.4/99.0 - 20 kt - 1010mb
20/0600 - 36.5/99.4 - 20 kt - 1011mb
20/1200 - 37.6/99.2 - 20 kt - 1012mb - Remnant low
20/1800 - 38.9/99.0 - 15 kt - 1014mb
21/0000 - 40.0/98.0 - 15 kt - 1015mb
21/0600 - 41.2/97.0 - 15 kt - 1013mb
21/1200 - absorbed by front

18/0700 - 29.1/95.1 - 90 kt - 962mb - Landfall and minimum pressure

[HurricaneRobert]

I think there were something like 80 mph winds at Hobby airport.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like impressive for a Category 1/2 hurricane. I know Houston mostly got tropical storm force winds. I've seen Category 1/2 hurricanes that looked a lot worse. I wonder if someone get a Dvorak on that satellite image? Also, why it was labeled as a major hurricane by NHC? Of course, it got it way off with Wilma and Hugo.

[Derek Ortt]

back then, they primarily assigned wind speeds and SS categories based upon the pressure, not the recon wind speed

[alicia83]

There were no hurricane force winds in the downtown Houston area because the eye passed over my house which was between Kirkwood and Dairy Ashford, something like 16-19 miles west of downtown. I had an 8" diameter pear tree in my yard uprooted, and numerous missing shingles.

I visited Galveston a couple of days after the storm on insurance business with my husband. The front row beach houses at Sea Isle (subdivision) were wiped out. All that was left of a beach house we used to rent was the staircase and part of the flooring which was up on the stilts. The rest of the row was in similar shape or worse, and of course those houses could not be rebuilt afterwards as the line of vegetation was moved back a minimum of 50 yards.
I remember being amazed at the damaged sustained, but granted, I'm talking about frame constructed structures. I didn't see a single palm tree on the west end of the island left standing. They were snapped like twigs, no matter the size. Part of the road was semi-washed out from the surge, and impassable farther down. I remember another front row beach house that had a concrete pad under it to park cars. The concrete was 2 1/2-3 ft. above the new beach level.

I don't know whether Alicia was a CAT 2 or 3, but I can tell you what I remember experiencing and seeing.