CAPE VERDE LULL

[Mecklenburg]

so far, the SAL outbreaks was on e of the most aggresive and the eastern atlantic has been relatively unfavorable since Bertha... could Bertha be the only CV system this year? will the SAL persists throughout the season just like 2005 and 2007? what do you think?

[Bane]

considering the cape verde season doesn't really get going until mid to late august, i would say doubtful.

[KWT]

not only that but most seasons only really have one true Cape Verde hurricane like Bertha, some have more and quite a few have lots of storms form further west in the mid Atlantic from Cape Verde waves but actually there usually aren't a huge amount of true CV hurricanes per a season.

[Mecklenburg]

this season will not be like 2004 though....

[Category 5]

Bertha was a rare event, the cape verde season doesn't usually get going until about mid august.

And I believe there are about 100 waves that come off of africa per year? (Correct me if I'm wrong) but out of those, how many develop? Few enough that theres really no such thing as a "Lull".

[ConvergenceZone]

between the gulf and carib, there will be plenty of storms to watch and track soon in addition to Ed, so no biggie about the CV season and the SAL...

[vacanechaser]

well, if you were looking at this link http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html for the sal, you may have also been seeing just plain ol dry air out there from the unfavorable mjo... not all that you see there is sal, or dust... plus, the true cape verde season does not get going until mid august!! no concerns of not seeing a cape verde season...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[bvigal]

That's right, Jesse! Last year SAL was strong and we still had Dean in August, a classic CV. And what's the big deal about Cape Verde's anyway? Recent monsters that were not CV's: Felix, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, to name a few.

[Category 5]

Recent monsters that were not CV's: Felix, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, to name a few.

All but Wilma can be traced to CV waves. They just weren't long track.

[bvigal]

Recent monsters that were not CV's: Felix, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, to name a few.

All but Wilma can be traced to CV waves. They just weren't long track.

Well by that logic, every tropical wave that comes off the coast of Africa, no matter how far west it goes before it spawns a low, would be classed a CV storm. In that case about 90% of storms are CVs. I don't think that's the case. Read the write-ups by the NHC. A CV will usually be identified, such as: "Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane "
vs:

The complex genesis of Katrina involved the interaction of a tropical wave, the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper tropospheric trough.

Rita originated from a complex interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of a cold front. The tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on 7 September. It failed to produce much deep convection as it traversed the tropical Atlantic during 8-12 September. Convection briefly consolidated along the axis of the tropical wave late on 13 September about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, but it soon diminished again. Meanwhile, a cold front had pushed southward over the central Atlantic during 11-12 September and then became stationary a couple hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands on 13 September. The southern extent of the stationary front lost definition and became a remnant surface trough on 14 September. This trough then drifted westward on 15 September and detached from the remainder of the weakening front as strong high pressure built eastward over the western Atlantic. The detached trough moved slowly westward to the north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on 16 September, producing a large but disorganized area of disturbed weather.

etc.

some definitions:
Cape Verde-type hurricanes typically develop from tropical waves which form in the African savanna during the wet season, then move into the African steppes. The disturbances move off the western coast of Africa and become tropical storms or tropical cyclones near the Cape Verde Islands, usually in August or September.(wikipedia) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2. (NOAA) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html

[vacanechaser]

Recent monsters that were not CV's: Felix, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, to name a few.

All but Wilma can be traced to CV waves. They just weren't long track.

Well by that logic, every tropical wave that comes off the coast of Africa, no matter how far west it goes before it spawns a low, would be classed a CV storm. In that case about 90% of storms are CVs. I don't think that's the case. Read the write-ups by the NHC. A CV will usually be identified, such as: "Ivan was a classical, long-lived Cape Verde hurricane "
vs:

The complex genesis of Katrina involved the interaction of a tropical wave, the middle tropospheric remnants of Tropical Depression Ten, and an upper tropospheric trough.

Rita originated from a complex interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of a cold front. The tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on 7 September. It failed to produce much deep convection as it traversed the tropical Atlantic during 8-12 September. Convection briefly consolidated along the axis of the tropical wave late on 13 September about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, but it soon diminished again. Meanwhile, a cold front had pushed southward over the central Atlantic during 11-12 September and then became stationary a couple hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands on 13 September. The southern extent of the stationary front lost definition and became a remnant surface trough on 14 September. This trough then drifted westward on 15 September and detached from the remainder of the weakening front as strong high pressure built eastward over the western Atlantic. The detached trough moved slowly westward to the north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on 16 September, producing a large but disorganized area of disturbed weather.

etc.

some definitions:
Cape Verde-type hurricanes typically develop from tropical waves which form in the African savanna during the wet season, then move into the African steppes. The disturbances move off the western coast of Africa and become tropical storms or tropical cyclones near the Cape Verde Islands, usually in August or September.(wikipedia) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde-type_hurricane

Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) Typically, this may occur in August and September, but in rare years (like 1995) there may be some in late July and/or early October. The numbers range from none up to around five per year - with an average of around 2. (NOAA) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html

all good points... those are the true cape verde hurricanes... the ones like bertha that develop out in the central atlantic.. the big deal is that most people like to watch them come across and develop and be able to track them for a week or more and watch them grow... just a guess.. whether they hit anyone or not is another story... just the fact that there might be a beautifully developed, mature hurricane in the middle of the atlantic to track for 2 weeks, thats the grab in my opinion for most people...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Mecklenburg]

how long will this lull going to last...