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My cone graphic and intensity forecast will be up later this morning.
Hurricane Ike
Advisory 1
As all of the uncertainty with Hanna is decreasing now that we have a good idea where it will end up, it is time to turn to a new storm, who has it’s own share of uncertainty.
Hurricane Ike, which formed a few days ago, rapidly strengthened yesterday, going from a Category 1 to a Category 4 hurricane in about 6 hours, although that is officially. Ike was probably a hurricane before it was designated one by the NHC. Since last night, however, Ike has been being affected by shear, specifically in Ike’s NW quadrant. It also appears that Ike is currently beginning an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Convection has also been thinning out recently. However, Ike is still a very organized, compact storm, and I estimate that Ike’s currently intensity is 125 MPH, which is a Category 3 hurricane.
Hurricane Ike is currently headed around the WNW, at around 295 degrees. Recently, it appears that Ike has been wobbling, and this could continue for a while. This is one of the effects of a small cyclone encountering shear. Ike should continue to move to the WNW for another 24 hours or so, before a westward or WSW motion kicks in, as Ike responds to the strengthening ridge above it.
The computer models are split into 2 groups this morning. After 24 hours, the GFS and the UKMET turn Ike out to sea without affecting land, although the GFS runs have shown the curve happening more west with each run, with the latest run showing the turn near the Bahamas.
The second camp consists of the models that show the WSW or SW turn after 24 hours, bring Ike into the Bahamas, and direct it towards the SE USA. The models in this group include that GFDL, HWRF, CMC, ECMWF and the NOGAPS. It surprises me that some of these models, especially the GFDL, are not following a similar track to the GFS, which some of these models are based on. My current track leans on the second camp of models, and shows a track similar slightly south of the NHC’s thinking through 72 hours, but a little north and east after that.
Intensity wise, Ike should stay a Category 3 hurricane until it gets past the shear provided by Hanna’s outflow. After that, conditions should allow for strengthening back into a Category 4.
All residents of the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina’s should keep an eye on Ike. All of these areas can be impacted, possibly directly from Ike. It is to soon to tell where Ike will end up.