Landfall intensity of Ike

[cpdaman]

i agree with Derek and Wxman this was not 100knot at landfall, and this did not have wilma's winds either.

It did have a bigger storm surge of course, although i haven't seen the estimated numbers at crystal beach or other areas east of galveston. Ike will be remembered as a very large storm that had a storm surge which encompassed/effected a very large area with moderate water level rises (multiple states, FL, MS,AL, East LA, S texas, as well as isolated areas just east of the eye with high water rises (NE tx, W LA. Also ike will be remembered as a storm that throughout his life in the GOM he had winds that lagged AT LEAST one cateorgy behind what you would typically find in a storm of his pressure.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm with you crazy, he most definitely was 100 kts. If someone has seen the pictures south of I-45 done only by wind damage, NOT by surge, they'd see it easily looks like Category 3 damage.

[gsgs]

don't they actually measure the windspeeds ?
there should be a graph available with the speeds over time
at different points in Houston

[DanKellFla]

I think we have all learned one thing here. The NHC need to revisit the way they label a storm as far as intensity. There should be more factors involved than just wind speed. Surge should equate in the formula as well as wind field size.

I think there should be 2 of them...

1# the current system for winds...
2# A surge system...

Like

Cat1S 5-7 feet
Cat2S 7-12 feet
Cat3S 12-18 feet
Cat4S 18-22 feet
Cat5s 22+ feet

Kind of like this...

Hurricane Noname is now a cat3 hurricane in the centeral gulf of Mexico with Winds of 120 mph and pressure 955 millibars, also he is graded at a cat4S for his size and wind field.

Somebody came up with a new system based on Windspeed, windfield diameter and some other data. There was a link to it somewhere on these boards. I lost it when I got a new computer. But, there really isn't enough expertise (IMHO) to predict surge. Maybe an after-the-fact clasification is in order. But, people have enough trouble dealing with the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Just from my experience. I totally agree that a different scale needs to be applied. Every time I talk about hurricanes with somebody, all they can think of is Category. I try to point out that windfields, durration over land, rainfall all contribute to the damabe of a system can cause. I have some friends who think that Wilma was a Cat 3 in northwest palm beach county. Ummmm, no roof damage and only on tree down..... But, it was scary and felt that way, so, it was Cat 3!!!!

[Sanibel]

I agree with Derek. Before he even posted I was thinking 90Kts max.

[Derek Ortt]

Looking at the data, Ike was not any more intense than 90KT at landfall

where are some of you getting 100KT from? It is most certainly not coming from the data

and no, Houston had nothing even remotely close to 95KT sustained winds. See Lauderdale for what real cat 2 winds do to a major city. Houston did not resemble Lauderdale after Wilma (it was close to Miami)

U saw that 118Kt wind reported by recon about 6 hrs till landfall..

and you also saw the surface winds did not exceed 90KT in the 6-9 hours before landfall?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have no idea, but I bet the people in the 80 floor Chase Tower have the day off...

[Ptarmigan]

Also have to realize that Houston is 50 miles inland so the gust ratio is more likely to be 1.5-1.6 rather than the 1.25 for winds coming in directly off the water. For gusts to 115 mph this would equate to a sustained wind of 72 mph (77 mph for a 1.5 ratio) or slightly less than sustained hurricane force. Should be noted also that the 65kt sustained wind reported at Hobby was an estimated and not measured wind. That said given the obvious developments occurring with the storm as it approached landfall it is likely that a small area of 100 kt winds very likely did occur along the shoreline east of where landfall occurred.

Steve

Hurricane Ike in our area had mostly tropical storm force winds with hurricane force gusts. It was scary!

[Ptarmigan]

I'd agree, not a Cat 3. Even the 95 kts at landfall may have been generous. Ike just wasn't transporting the higher winds aloft down to the surface. Most of Houston saw only TS conditions in the western eyewall. Fine with me, maybe my power will be back on soon. I'm thankful we didn't go through the eastern eyewall and see the big surge into the Bay and hurricane-force winds.

Those winds were scary and I never want to encounter one ever again in my life. What a mess!

[wxman57]

Definitely not a Category 3. Nothing to support it as far as observations near the surface. Recon consistently found that Ike wasn't transporting its strongest winds to the surface according to the standard FL-SFC reduction factor. And the SS scale is ONLY a wind scale, nothing more. Categories are defined by maximum sustained winds, period. Over the years, some have tried to associate pressure levels with wind speeds but wind speed depends on the pressure gradient, not the absolute lowest pressure. Surge is completely independent of storm intensity. Max sustained wind is not even a consideration when calculating storm surge. Size is what's important as far as storm surge, not the peak wind somewhere in a hurricane.

So this was just a Category 2, and not much areal coverage of Cat 2 winds, in fact. Take a look at theHRD wind analysis contours as Ike moved through Houston. The only Cat 2 winds were over a very small area of the Gulf south of High Island (purple area). For the most part, Ike was just a large Cat 1 with a tiny pocket of Cat 2 winds well east of the center.

Yellow area is 65kt (75 mph) winds. Purple is 85kt (Cat 2) winds:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... _knots.pdf

Here's the main Ike web site:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

Ike actually intensified in its SW quadrant as it moved north through Houston. Strongest winds were north of Houston, actually - about 80-85 mph.

I took the HRD map and plotted the approx locations of some landmarks:



Looks like downtown Houston through Conroe may have seen 80-85 mph sustained winds. There was a sharp gradient west of the city. Katy (in the "W" of Downtown) received strong TS winds (60-70 mph sustained).

Those W-NW winds on the southwest side of Ike were really strong as that convection fired on the SW side of Ike. Most of the downed trees I saw were blown to the east.

[Dave C]

Clearly the best thing people can learn about Ike is not to mess with a storm just because it's not a major. As good as he became with his radar presentation compared to earlier before landfall you can't fight the facts. Data just dosen't justify the upgrade and I was one who thought it was a 3 untill all the facts are laid out on the table. That map posted by wxman 57 pretty much seals it.

[Ptarmigan]

In many ways a large Category 1 is more dangerous than a small Category 5 hurricane. Ike tragically showed it that way. Of course small Category 5 hurricanes have been horrible too, like Andrew in 1992.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of convection, it was a low electricity convection. During the height of the storm here, when the raindrops hitting the house sounded like rocks, I heard no thunder at all. Might say it was too loud to hear thunder, but the only flashes I saw was transformer pops.

Now, the rain that came the next day, it had plenty of thunder and lightning.

[Ptarmigan]

Speaking of convection, it was a low electricity convection. During the height of the storm here, when the raindrops hitting the house sounded like rocks, I heard no thunder at all. Might say it was too loud to hear thunder, but the only flashes I saw was transformer pops.

Now, the rain that came the next day, it had plenty of thunder and lightning.

All I remember last week was howling winds and heavy rain. It was torture, like having a bunch of needles pushed into you one at a time.

[Steve]

My opinion and the data's appears to be that Ike was a Category 2. Obviously that doesn't tell the whole story though. The sheer size of the windfield was insane. The fact that there were tropical storm force winds 200 miles out (or more, can't remember the exact windfield size) should say enough about Ike that it's Cat 2 will never tell. Ask anyone on the panhandle, southern Baldwin and Mobile Counties, coastal Mississippi (Jackson/Harrison/Hancock), any of the parishes in Louisiana that had flooding (St. Tammany and Plaquemines all along the coast through Terrebonne which had 15,000 homes flooded, all the way to Cameron), then down the Triangle to nearly the Central SE TX Coast, and they'll tell you the breadth of the surge, if not so much the height, was positively at the highest end of the spectrum. And that surge tells the story of Ike far more than whatever trees, signs or powerlines went down or how many people lost windows or roof shingles to its winds.

My .02.

Steve

[Ptarmigan]

Ike actually intensified in its SW quadrant as it moved north through Houston. Strongest winds were north of Houston, actually - about 80-85 mph.

Looks like downtown Houston through Conroe may have seen 80-85 mph sustained winds. There was a sharp gradient west of the city. Katy (in the "W" of Downtown) received strong TS winds (60-70 mph sustained).

Those W-NW winds on the southwest side of Ike were really strong as that convection fired on the SW side of Ike. Most of the downed trees I saw were blown to the east.

How come Ike intensified in its SW quadrant when it moved through Houston?