southwest Caribbean

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

mm5fsu shows a strong tropical storm forming here
by day 4, and a hurricane forming in this area by day 5.
Note the trough to the north of it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu-m ... =Animation

NOGAPS shows a tropical storm 1004 mb to 1008 mb by 5 days
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

UKMET shows lower pressures over the area 1008 mb probably a depression:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

NAM shows something near SW Florida at 48 hours:
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/48h/nam_pres_48h.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

********************The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.*****************
____________________________________________________________________

Regardless, the convection is very intense over the highest
heat content waters and shear is low. There is a possibility
of tropical cyclone formation here in the NW Caribbean that
then gets taken along a front. Most likely a weak tropical
storm because it is moving north so quickly. Moisture
is forecasted to reach Florida from the front this week.

[lonelymike]

Any pro mets got an opinion?

[cycloneye]

235
ABNT20 KNHC 192340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HAS FORMED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[caneman]

I'm surprised no one posted this but this area is now under code yellow. Bears watching.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/