Cape verde season is it over yet ? No so

[colbroe]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG
25W/26W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOOP OF MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY PUSHED
WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF
12N...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE MOTION OF CLOUD ELEMENTS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not exactly a Cape Verde system, but European does see an MDR development...

[Steve H.]

Yes it does! The ECM Shows a TC entering the eastern Caribbean with some fairly strong ridging to the north.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yes it does! The ECM Shows a TC entering the eastern Caribbean with some fairly strong ridging to the north.

Euro ridge would seem to imply this would be a Central America threat, but I can't see that big trough in the West not progressing Eastward in October to allow this non-existent feature, at this point just a figment of a computers imagination, not to turn up into Florida or the Eastern Gulf.

[StormTracker]

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG
25W/26W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A LOOP OF MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY PUSHED
WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF
12N...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE MOTION OF CLOUD ELEMENTS.

I was looking at this little blob last night and wondering why nobody had posted anything about it yet...I was too tired to post, plus I figured nobody would really be concerned at the time because of 93L(last night) & 94L taking center-stage!!!

[StormTracker]

Yes it does! The ECM Shows a TC entering the eastern Caribbean with some fairly strong ridging to the north.

Euro ridge would seem to imply this would be a Central America threat, but I can't see that big trough in the West not progressing Eastward in October to allow this non-existent feature, at this point just a figment of a computers imagination, not to turn up into Florida or the Eastern Gulf.

Hey Ed, maybe that Euro ridge is the big "Fat-Lady"!!!("It ain't over til the fat lady sings")!!!

[blp]

The 18Z GFS is in agreement with the 12Z Euro in 240hrs on this low, with the GFS slightly North. Both have a good ridge over the system. Normally I don't put much stock in the GFS long range but with the EURO on board this has peaked my interest.

18Z 240 GFS



12Z 240 EURO


EDIT: Just noticed the 18Z HWRF for Kyle picking this up at 126hr.