Need help researching Hurricane Ike history

[Diva]

I need help finding the following information on Hurricane Ike:

*Track predictions from a week prior to landfall (or whenever he became a named storm) up until landfall.

*Storm surge prediction for Jefferson County, Texas, from when the predictions started until landfall.

I looked on the NHC website but they don't have it posted in the archives yet.

My husband needs this for insurance loss purposes. Thanks!

[RL3AO]

Heres the track forecast archive. As for surge, I'm not sure where to find that.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

[Diva]

Thanks for the link RL3AO!

Does anyone have an idea about where I can find the surge predictions for Ike?

[bvigal]

Here is the advisory archive for Ike.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/IKE.shtml?

The advisories themselves will contain surge forecasts for the storm - not county specific. i.e.
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.

[bvigal]

Following page also has archived local messages by NWS. (I think NWS is retiring this page, no longer any links to it on their sites, just like they are retiring regional home pages - what a shame!!)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/
Here are archived messages specific to Houston NWS:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/warn_archive/HGX/?C=M;O=D
choose HLS directory for Hurricane Local Statements

[Diva]

Thanks bvigal!
My husband is an insurance adjuster and he needs this to prove that the Golden Triangle area wasn't expected to get the effects from Ike like it did until hours before Ike hit.
Thanks for the help y'all....

[jinftl]

That may be a tough argument to make....here is the advisory from 4pm CDT on Thursday, 9/11/08...more than 30 hours prior to landfall and the Golden Triangle is in the thick of it...forecast to get ike's worst, eastern surge if the forecast upper tx coast landfall takes place...

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wxman57]

Ike was forecast to hit the upper Texas coast as a Category 3 hurricane from Sunday morning the 7th of September - over 5 days from landfall. The exact height of the storm surge in specific places wasn't certain that far out, but we knew full well that a major hurricane may be affecting the upper Texas coast from quite a few days out. I began filling gas cans and getting supplies as early as that Sunday. We were conveying this threat to our clients 5-6 days from landfall.