Area of disturbed wx in the EGOM

[HURAKAN]

981
ABNT20 KNHC 301131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL
STORM LAURA...LOCATED ABOUT 485 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

[jlauderdal]

Code Yellow for this system as of 8pm TWO...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO....

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's a rather large code yellow area!

its like an accuwx cone of destruction, make it huge and cover yourself

[Sanibel]

Failed to organize. Dry air and weakness got it. There was heavy rain in this as it passed over us but we got the dry slot.

[HURAKAN]

136
AGXX40 KNHC 301703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N83W WITH A TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK 1013 MB
LOW NEAR 23N90W. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE WINDS WITH THE LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE E OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF WED AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
THE S TEXAS COAST LATE AND THEN ACROSS THE SE GULF THU THEN E OF
THE AREA FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLC SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W TO A LOW IN
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW AND REALLY DOES NOT BRING IT INTO
THE ATLC. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20-25 KT SW WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION
OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE WED
AND EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 31N73W STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI AND SAT THEN MOVE
N AS A WARM FRONT SUN.

CARIBBEAN TRADES 15-20 CONFINED TO E OF 75W WITH WIND 10 KT W OF
75W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND
EXTENDING FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE THU AND BECOME STATIONARY FRI
AND SAT THEN DISSIPATE SUN.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.