Eastern Gulf of Mexico- Moderate Convection

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Last night's heavy convection has diminished.

However, an upper level impulse along the stationary
boundary is generating new convection 200 miles Southwest
of Florida's West Coast specifically Cedar Key south to Naples,
at least that appears to be the heading of this upper level impulse.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-052115-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
513 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEPENING MOISTURE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL COMBINE
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND INTERIOR WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. LESSER RAIN CHANCES AREA EXPECTED OVER THE NATURE COAST
TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS...FROM STRONGER OR SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY...ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWN POURS...MINOR FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

A potent baroclinic impulse is currently 200 miles SW of Florida. It has about
8 hours before coming towards the coast line. It will be important to watch if
anything comes down to the surface. Winds continue to be persistent across
Florida: 15-25 mph with higher gusts: This is indicative of a pressure gradient
between the broad low and impulse along the trough and the high building
further to Florida's East.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=152

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... er+Outlook

Again, nothing is imminent, but it is something to be watched. A baroclinic impulse
can sometimes work down to the surface and go tropical. It will depend on
how much time this system has over water and how it utilizes oceanic heat content
as well as day time heating induced convection across Florida that will develop
along the stationary boundary later today. I would not be surprised to see
an upper level low pressure impulse visible on the radars later today.
As the impulse passes, there could be severe thunderstorms, so we need to
watch to see if it makes it down to the surface in terms of downbursting winds,
and monitor for tropical or baroclinic (frontal low) cyclogenesis.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Again it is still very weak, just an upper level impulse, but I am thinking
that a baroclinic frontal low pressure could develop along it, and am
concerned for strong thunderstorms for south/central Florida that may
result from that. I don't know if it has enough time to go tropical, but
I am seeing a frontal low that has been persistent.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

An area of moderate convection persists 150 miles west of Florida. Development
is not expected in the short term.

However, this area of convection along a stationary boundary
has a history of Flooding rains and wind. South Florida was drenched
with 5-6 inches of rain by this disturbance when the stationary front
was over south florida a few days ago. Yesterday, strong squalls
moved through the Tampa Bay Area producing 2-3 inches of rain, and
persistent gusty winds over 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph leaving
a lot of down twigs in its wake.

A cold front is expected to enter the north gulf tomorrow and sweep this
disturbance away. But if the front misses this area and the area persists,
it will bear watching. Even if the front catches it, it bears watching. It has convection,
and may develop a baroclinic cyclonic circulation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Appears to be moving quickly east again towards Florida...
Click on fronts and you can see a trough extending from the
East Gulf across Florida into the Atlantic.
This upper level impulse combined with day time heating will produce heavy rain squalls with gusty winds by late afternoon.
Just like yesterday.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This area has basically combined with daytime heating
forming a mass of heavy rains over Florida. The heaviest
convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula. A few thin bands are
left over the waters of the gulf. Chance of development is 10%, very low,
but this area will be watched because it has pulsed up and down. By far
the heaviest convection has moved inland over Florida, so for now,
tropical development is not likely, but I give it a 10% chance if the
cluster moves offshore into the gulf.

[JonathanBelles]

That area should die over night, and get going again for tomorrow. Not Tropical what so ever.