Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Frank2 I do like your compassion. It is very good that you take a stand against
those who might want a storm.

[jinftl]

Latest discussion from Dr. Jeff Masters:

The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic, and no reliable computer models forecast tropical cyclone development over the next four days. The UKMET model continues to predict a tropical depression could spin up in the middle Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands about five days from now, but the GFS model has stopped predicting this. Climatology does not favor development in this region in October. A better chance for development will be over the Caribbean a week from now, and most of the models indicate the possibility of a Caribbean storm developing a 6-8 days from now.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1117&tstamp=200810

[DanKellFla]

NaNa.....
The hurricane season is making fun of us.

[jinftl]

Now up to 4 (Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana) named storms in the last 19 days....on the verge of 5!!!

[Category 5]

Yep, it's winding down quickly alright.

You're all going to cause crows to go extinct. Quit starting threads like this before November.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I understand your perspective that some may feel annoyed that certain threads get repetitive, but think the quit starting threads part is a bit harsh. A lot
of people including me are not experts, and may be genuinely concerned people who
have questions, such as the question of this thread. I don't mean to pick on you
or anyone, but people have anxieties about storms and when concerned will ask
questions. Also, the starter of this thread was just stating their analysis. That is
the beauty of this forum, we share analyses. Therefore there's nothing
wrong when someone makes a thread like this and have information they believe
may back up their perspective. Remember, many people- especially me- are not experts
and in the learning stages, so let us all be open and understanding in correcting people's
analysis when they post questions....

[Category 5]

It's more of a think before you post thing then an expert vs. non expert thing. A is the season winding down quickly thread in the middle of September is not thinking. Some people seem to think that if we go without a storms for 2 days that the season is winding down (this was posted only a few days after Ikes demise for god sake). It happens every year, every lull is season cancel.

[somethingfunny]

This proves the mid-October spike in the graph.

[Category 5]

This proves the mid-October spike in the graph.

Exactly, in fact it's right on cue.

Never sleep on that secondary peak.

It may be old, but this graph is darn accurate all things considered.

[Boricua]

The secondary peak is on fire now with Omar that promise to become a hurricane.
BTW comment more on Omar, looks like nobody cares.

[DanKellFla]

Can we change the name of the thread to: 2008 Hurricane Season Continues to Struggle along.

I'll be down to 4 gas containers by Sunday.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok, its the Canadian, but per the model, Tampa Bay is doomed from 16L/future Paloma!

[jinftl]

Maybe we can just get this thread killed outright...it has proven to be a moot topic given the level of activity since it was first posted on 9/16.

Can we change the name of the thread to: 2008 Hurricane Season Continues to Struggle along.

I'll be down to 4 gas containers by Sunday.

[somethingfunny]

Forecast was 17/9/5 for the season.....when this thread was made we had 10/5/3 and needed another 7/4/2 for the forecast to verify exactly on target. As of midday on October 15, we've had 5/2/0....with Omar making a run at major. Right now 2008 is at 15/7/3.

If we count the unnamed storm that hit the Carolinas (I believe it will be counted in post-season analysis), assume that T.D. 16 never strengthens, and if Omar makes it to Cat3....then that would have us at 16/7/4.....meaning all we need is a late-October suprise major to make this the most aggressive seasonal forecast to actually verify. Scary.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ok, its the Canadian, but per the model, Tampa Bay is doomed from 16L/future Paloma!

Not gonna happen, ridge pushes TD 16 over central America and kills it. Then a cold
front moves over Florida in 4 days. The cold, dry air should effectively wipe out
any tropical activity near Florida.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's more of a think before you post thing then an expert vs. non expert thing. A is the season winding down quickly thread in the middle of September is not thinking. Some people seem to think that if we go without a storms for 2 days that the season is winding down (this was posted only a few days after Ikes demise for god sake). It happens every year, every lull is season cancel.

I wouldn't say it is not thinking, but instead not as knowledgable.

Someone who is less knowledgeable about tropical meteorology
will of course ask questions like this- I get people around me who
ask me about the tropics and they tell me the season's over many
times during September for the last several years, only to have
a hurricane form days later. I tell them that tropical synoptics
support activity through November, and that September is no where
near the end of the season.

The more knowledgable someone is about tropical meteorology, the more
likely they know of late season storms.

[DanKellFla]

OK, now I think the season is winding down. Just like Cat5s graph shows. Nothing of significance looks to be breweing in the Atlantic, Shear has set up over S. Fla and the carribean. And, the rainy season is officially over. Which I always interepret as; If a hurricane does come, the weather is cool enough so life is possible without A/C.

[Category 5]

Yes now we should start winding down, but don't get caught napping. Remember storms like Michelle, Lenny, and Noel.

[somethingfunny]

I haven't looked at the map but I'm thinking it's about that time when the MJO winds down. That plus advancing cold fronts ought to shut the Atlantic down for the next few weeks. I suppose something might pop up in mid-November in the Western Carribbean...a weak meanderer like Gamma or Marco'96....but in my ignorant opinion we're more likely to see no more activity until early December....when for some reason I'm expecting a rogue end-of-season storm to pop up again.

So far this decade the period from now (Oct 22-Nov 22) has seen cyclogenesis of Lorenzo'01, Michelle'01, Noel'01, Beta'05, Gamma'05, Delta'05, and Noel'07. (7 storms).... while the period from Nov 22-Dec 31 has seen Olga'01, Odette'03, Peter'03, Otto'04, Epsilon'05, Zeta'05, and Olga'07 (also 7 storms). A subtropical system in late October 2000, and Lenny and Mitch, also within the past ten years skew my data a bit, but I'm going to willfully ignore that to make a point.

That point being....I expect Paloma to pop up in the first week of December.