was there a year when predictions were out of hand?

#41 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Aug 08, 2008 5:34 pm

Mecklenburg wrote:when do you think the CSU and NOAA will have those remaining storms form? early september i guess..

Uh, I didn't know they had anything to do with when the storms form.

#42 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 2:00 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

I was getting a little nervous, but its time to say...BUMP!

#43 Postby **JtSmarts** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:04 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

I was getting a little nervous, but its time to say...BUMP!

LOL

#44 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 6:39 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

I was getting a little nervous, but its time to say...BUMP!

LOL

Matt, I think an admin should get to pick the pair of socks you have to eat. :cheesy:

#45 Postby **somethingfunny** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 1:36 pm

All these ridiculous "busted season" predictions year after year remind me of male "enhancement" drugs. It doesn't matter what everyone tells you objectively, some people are just convinced that they are "below average", which is why we have those horrible infomercials on TV at night. :cheesy:

Ptarmigan · #46 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 6:49 pm

I notice in 2005, many of those storms were forming closer to land, not out in the Cape Verde.

Just Joshing You · #47 Postby **Just Joshing You** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 1:02 am

When is matt going to eat socks? Maybe just finally delete his account instead lol

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #48 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:50 am

I was not expecting the late season activity; some seasons do and some seasons don't end early. I was acting dumb, when I made that post in a very unserious way, I'm not always serious, but hey I like to read my post and its reaction to them some times. But hey, I do deserve to eat a sock for posting that trash, but hey, I do get a kick out of it. One more thing, I don't really like your attitude Josh maybe your account should be deleted as far I'm concerned for acting rude. I been here longer then you. Going to eat my sock now!!! :wink:

To the admins sure pick me out a sock. I deserve two of them for making this "kind" of rude post I just made; I'm not trying to come off that way. :wink:

jinftl · #49 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:38 pm

Pretty much since Ike, every storm that has formed has been 'predicted' as the last of the 2008 season...there have even been predictions on the last NHC advisory of the season....i predict there will be a prediction that paloma is the last storm of the season in the next few days!

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #50 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 5:04 pm

Whoa everybody not so harsh on Matt...Matt no need to eat your socks,
I can understand where you were coming from. I'm sure many other
people had similar opinions earlier in the season but weren't daring enough
to admit it. :ggreen:

LOL

Derek Ortt · #51 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 10:47 am

vbhoutex wrote:
Matt, I think an admin should get to pick the pair of socks you have to eat.

make sure their dirty socks

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #52 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Nov 10, 2008 12:20 pm

Dirty socks? Why's everyone piling on Matt? So what if he made
a prediction that didn't verify. Pretty much 85% of people make predictions that don't verify.

The sock thing was probably just for humor.

Recurve · #53 Postby **Recurve** » Tue Nov 11, 2008 8:08 pm

Matt contributes a lot of information here, and of course I support him and all our regular viewers. But saying we won't reach any number when it's early August is silly, which he of course knows now. Offering to eat hosiery if proved wrong is the kind of daring we appreciate.
Hey, I busted too. My pre-season wishful thinking was for something like 13 named storms. We were extremely lucky here (so far!) this season with all the systems that did threaten us, we escaped any damage except for some flooding.

Please post video of socks being swallowed as soon as it's available. Think of the youtube hits you'll get, Matt.

Calasanjy · #54 Postby **Calasanjy** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 11:30 pm

Whether CSU, TSR, or other forecasts are for an active, average, or suppressed season, it is of course impossible to predict exactly how many storms will form. Even more difficult to forecast are the intensities and locations of the storms. We need only look at 2006 and 1997 for examples of seasons where above-average Atlantic TC activity was forecast yet unforeseen atmospheric conditions worked to inhibit development (i.e. in late summer 1997 the ENSO shifted to El Nino mode, in 2006 there was greater wind shear than anticipated).

Category 5 · #55 Postby **Category 5** » Fri Nov 14, 2008 11:41 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If this season goe's above 15 named storms I will eat my socks. The MDR is dead as of this moment. Not saying that we won't have more cape verdes but I believe a weak El nino could develop and shorten it and make waves develop more over the western Half of the Ocean. Also, I expect that the overall shear won't be "favorable" for the number of distrabances needed to get to 17 named storms to form into cyclones.

Get this man some socks. :lol:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #56 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sat Nov 15, 2008 2:22 pm

Moral: Hurricane seasons are EXTREMELY difficult to predict.
Dr. Klotzback/Grey were pretty accurate this year. But in 2006 and
1997 cases, especially 2006- the weather can fool even the greatest
experts.

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