Hurricane Ike High Water (Surge) Measurements Available

[wxman57]

I've been attending a few post-Ike seminars lately and came across some graphics put together by FEMA and the Harris County Flood Control District (thanks to Jeff Lindner there). Thought you might be curious as to how high the water got during Ike.

Here's a shot from a presentation of mine. Jeff Lindner (HCFCD) sent me the picture of the Galveston First Baptist Church in Galveston water lines from 1900, 1915, and other hurricanes. I added the line showing Ike about 2 inches below the 1900 storm. Note Alicia's surge height at the stairs on the bottom of the picture:



Now let's look at the overall surge across southeast Texas. The numbers on the image may be hard to see so I typed in ranges in bold black lettering for each area:



Take a look at the north coast near Texas City. 21.2 feet there! We think the NE winds and longer fetch over the Bay lead to wave run-up in that area, pushing the surge to the highest level recorded in any area with Ike:



Here's Texas City and Galveston:



Northeast Harris County:



Southeast Harris County:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Was there a physical high water mark on the church used to add your line?


ETA:

for future reference, what is the elevation, relation to sea level, of Buffalo Bayou near UH-Downtown?

What kind of surge would we need to get bankful donwtown, or is the only way to flood downtown Allison style is to get 20-something inches of rain in a night?

[wxman57]

Was there a physical high water mark on the church used to add your line?


ETA:

for future reference, what is the elevation, relation to sea level, of Buffalo Bayou near UH-Downtown?

What kind of surge would we need to get bankfull downtown, or is the only way to flood downtown Allison style is to get 20-something inches of rain in a night?

Ed,

A second picture sent to me by Jeff Lindner had someone's finger pointing to the Ike high water mark on a close up of the Church wall. It was about 2-3 inches below the 1900 level. But the water mark didn't show up well in the photo.

As for Buffalo Bayou near downtown - I rode my bike down there after Ike and the high water mark topped out across Memorial Drive in one spot. It would not have taken much more rainfall or surge to cause Buffalo Bayou to overflow its banks all across Downtown, perhaps only a few feet more above MSL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sort of OT, but are you getting fired up over Texas winter weather season as it approaches?

[wxman57]

Sort of OT, but are you getting fired up over Texas winter weather season as it approaches?

I'm counting down the days until next summer when it's finally above 90 every day again. But I'll appreciate a few months of rest following this busy season.

Here's that other picture Jeff sent me. It shows someone pointing to the high water mark for Ike just below the 1900 storm. Can't really make out the line on the picture, though:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sort of OT, but are you getting fired up over Texas winter weather season as it approaches?

I'm counting down the days until next summer when it's finally above 90 every day again.

I hate cold weather myself. But I like snow. Or even sleet, especially if it gives me an excuse to miss work, and the kids to miss school, then I can handle the cold to go outside and play.


The dry air in winter isn't good for my skin. I like humidity. As long as it is reasonable.

[somethingfunny]

I knew that 12-foot surge measurement was undervalued....

[wxman57]

I knew that 12-foot surge measurement was undervalued....

That depends on where you're talking about. The surge was 12 feet in many areas, more in some, less in some.

[HurricaneBelle]

What is the status of the hundreds who were missing after Ike? I haven't heard anything, and I'm wondering if any of the local media there have recently looked into this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What is the status of the hundreds who were missing after Ike? I haven't heard anything, and I'm wondering if any of the local media there have recently looked into this.

I think the numbers have come way down, into the ballpark of 40 or so, who may be buried in debris, or may never be found.



On a semi-related note

Tiny Shoreacres bares big burden

Hurricane Ike's storm surge slammed into the picturesque Shoreacres bayfront in the predawn darkness, turning houses into breezeways as it knocked out walls on its relentless push inland.

Today, exactly two months after Ike hit, the scene remains one of utter devastation. Chunks of the brick facade from one house are strewn across its driveway. A toilet lies upended on a front lawn.

In one house, sodden clothing hangs in closets exposed by missing walls, creating a tableau that resembles a child's doll house left out in the rain.

Eighty-eight percent of the 693 homes in this southeast Harris County community were flooded, including many that stayed dry during Hurricane Carla in 1961, Hurricane Alicia in 1983 and Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, City Administrator David Stall said. Only about half of the 1,500 residents have returned.

Because the scale of Ike's destruction was so vast, it was easy for small coastal communities like Shoreacres to be overlooked. Much of the world knows about the devastation in historic Galveston, but few are aware of the comparable damage in this bedroom community.

"We're sort of a little enclave to ourselves here," Stall said. "We're in the shadow of La Porte."

Trailers and mobile homes of all shapes and sizes — rented, borrowed or purchased by residents who wanted to stay on their property — stand in driveways alongside gutted houses throughout Shoreacres. Other residents camp in tents pitched in their front yards.

[ROCK]

What is the status of the hundreds who were missing after Ike? I haven't heard anything, and I'm wondering if any of the local media there have recently looked into this.

NO they havent and probably will not.......a source of mine who was a first responder and part of the search for bodies has told me that the media extremely underestimated the death toll on Crystal Beach. Close to 1,200 to date discovered in the debris. This is from a reliable source....working for a govt agency... Many people tried to ride it out in one house. The story I was told was up to 10 people in one debris field of a fairly large home. This same seen was found all over Bolivar. Where was the madatory evac 72 hrs before landfall? These people ran out of time...

I can back this up with my own expirence. Friday morning 9am trying to make one more trip to the beach house to save more valuables, me and dad almost got trapped on the west end. Water was already flooding Galveston. Roads that were dry and passable when we made our to the Pirate Beach area on Stewart were flooding 10 mintues later when we turned around.......there was no time....the orders were given way to late for Galveston and especially Bolivar.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is no reason for the government to cover up hundreds of recovered bodies. I tend to believe the Laura Recovery Center numbers. It is possible a few entire families were lost, and thus nobody has looked for them, but most people have friends or relatives who would have started looking for them.


Since a watch is only issued generally 36, sometimes 48 hours before the onset of sustained tropical storm force winds, a 72 hour evacuation would have required issuing orders before NHC had even posted watches, and IIRC some of the early 5 day cones barely covered the Houston/Galveston area. I think I recall some some of the Galveston officials blaming the late issuance of mando orders on an advisory (written by Lixion Avila, IIRC) from 4 or 5 days out that had the line near Corpus Christi, and Houston barely inside the 5 day error cone. Weak excuse, in my opinion.

But still, issuing mando evacs before a watch is even up would be a brave thing to do.

[HurricaneRobert]

Most people had already decided to ignore evacuation orders anyway. I can't tell you how many times I've heard "Well, Alicia was a category 3, and this is only a 2, and we did fine then." The freeways around Houston 2 days before landfall were completely clear - far different from the scene during Rita. It was just stupid people being stupid and perhaps drowning because of their stupidity.

[ROCK]

There is no reason for the government to cover up hundreds of recovered bodies. I tend to believe the Laura Recovery Center numbers. It is possible a few entire families were lost, and thus nobody has looked for them, but most people have friends or relatives who would have started looking for them.


Since a watch is only issued generally 36, sometimes 48 hours before the onset of sustained tropical storm force winds, a 72 hour evacuation would have required issuing orders before NHC had even posted watches, and IIRC some of the early 5 day cones barely covered the Houston/Galveston area. I think I recall some some of the Galveston officials blaming the late issuance of mando orders on an advisory (written by Lixion Avila, IIRC) from 4 or 5 days out that had the line near Corpus Christi, and Houston barely inside the 5 day error cone. Weak excuse, in my opinion.

But still, issuing mando evacs before a watch is even up would be a brave thing to do.

Well lets see Ed, since my source was on Bolivar in the aftermath and works for HLS, I would have to agree with his assessment. Remember the media was not allowed access over Bolivar for some time after landfall.....

Coverup or not, Bolivar was mostly likely under water by early Friday morning. We are talking almost 36 hrs from landfall...the mandatory evacs should have been givin at 48-72 IMO.....It was not the wind that killed these people...it was the cat4 ish nature of Ike's surge and the blase approach by Galveston and the county....we need good ole Wayne and his expose to dig a little more and find the truth.....

[Ptarmigan]

NO they havent and probably will not.......a source of mine who was a first responder and part of the search for bodies has told me that the media extremely underestimated the death toll on Crystal Beach. Close to 1,200 to date discovered in the debris. This is from a reliable source....working for a govt agency... Many people tried to ride it out in one house. The story I was told was up to 10 people in one debris field of a fairly large home. This same seen was found all over Bolivar. Where was the madatory evac 72 hrs before landfall? These people ran out of time...

I can back this up with my own expirence. Friday morning 9am trying to make one more trip to the beach house to save more valuables, me and dad almost got trapped on the west end. Water was already flooding Galveston. Roads that were dry and passable when we made our to the Pirate Beach area on Stewart were flooding 10 mintues later when we turned around.......there was no time....the orders were given way to late for Galveston and especially Bolivar.

I would not be surprised if some of the bodies were washed away to sea during Ike. As for a government cover up, I would wonder why they would do that? Since many people did not evacuate for Ike, the death toll could easily be high. Last time I checked, 200 people were listed as missing from Ike.

I know after the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, the death toll was listed as being up to 500. That death toll was proven to be false and only made that estimate to not scare people away from rebuilding San Francisco. The actual death toll is at least 3,000. Some put it as high as 6,000 killed in the 1906 Earthquake. Most of the death came from the resulting fire which destroyed the city. It was last time a major city was destroyed before Hurricane Katrina flooded out New Orleans.

[CaneMaster]

There is no reason for the government to cover up hundreds of recovered bodies. I tend to believe the Laura Recovery Center numbers. It is possible a few entire families were lost, and thus nobody has looked for them, but most people have friends or relatives who would have started looking for them.


Since a watch is only issued generally 36, sometimes 48 hours before the onset of sustained tropical storm force winds, a 72 hour evacuation would have required issuing orders before NHC had even posted watches, and IIRC some of the early 5 day cones barely covered the Houston/Galveston area. I think I recall some some of the Galveston officials blaming the late issuance of mando orders on an advisory (written by Lixion Avila, IIRC) from 4 or 5 days out that had the line near Corpus Christi, and Houston barely inside the 5 day error cone. Weak excuse, in my opinion.

But still, issuing mando evacs before a watch is even up would be a brave thing to do.

I found this hilarious... sorry .... I know the gov. lies and covers-up numbers all the time, Just look at the iraq war death toll reported by the gov. and then go to the Veterans affairs site and look at their numbers the difference is astounding. over a million people have been permanently disabled and over 70,000 have died (our people) SEE the thing is if they can get them in a chopper and off the ground before they die they aren't considered in the death toll numbers....
But when a natural disaster occurs they cover-up numbers as well usually more in fact. Look at the gov. reported numbers for katrina then look at the numbers cumulatively collected from local townships and cities and add them up.... BIG difference.

There's a reason for covering up this type of information, as large death counts in any situation produces a backlash on all sorts of industry, insurance, travel to popular destinations, living expenses, law-suits, and probably one of the number one, public outrage / riots community groupings etc. .. IF they can downplay it in any way they possibly can they will... For instance just as in the Iraq situation in new orleans, if they were prisoners that died, they weren't included in the counts even if it was directly related to the storm, if they were people that are unidentified that they could not identify or the bodies showed a certain degree of post-mortem decay they weren't included as they would balance off alot of it into homicides concluded from the storm and individual survival, or bodies they would say were homicides and thrown out to sea that washed in from surge, etc. .. There are so many ways for them to cover tracks they take every advantage they can #1 reason why with higher death rates the cities can request more aid and funding.

I personally have a lot of family who are members of military / lawyers / gov. officers / and such. People put too much trust into our system. I am not going to say anymore because I do not wish to release information I should not.

I am just letting you know this happens all the time the media is controlled as well...

I myself believe the numbers from Ike are far higher than they are reporting. It doesn't make sense look at when they issued evac. the estimates on how many people stayed to ride it out was like 40,000 or something, how many lived through it? Their numbers just don't add up they never do.

A mando evac. before a watch is even up may be brave but look at how many lives could be saved, they knew how big ike was before it even came close. What is the worst that would've happened people would have had to vacation somewhere a little while but hey they'd still be alive right?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ignoring the issue of black helicopter conspiracy theories, a mandotory evac based on a 72 hour plus cone of uncertainty before watches are even issued would have meant evacuating half the Texas coast, and a good part of the Louisiana coast. A similar situation further East could mean almost the entire coast of one side of Florida. Issue too many false alarms for way too big an area too early, people will start ignoring warnings in even bigger numbers than they do now.

[vbhoutex]

I found this hilarious... sorry .... I know the gov. lies and covers-up numbers all the time, Just look at the iraq war death toll reported by the gov. and then go to the Veterans affairs site and look at their numbers the difference is astounding. over a million people have been permanently disabled and over 70,000 have died (our people) SEE the thing is if they can get them in a chopper and off the ground before they die they aren't considered in the death toll numbers....
But when a natural disaster occurs they cover-up numbers as well usually more in fact. Look at the gov. reported numbers for katrina then look at the numbers cumulatively collected from local townships and cities and add them up.... BIG difference.

There's a reason for covering up this type of information, as large death counts in any situation produces a backlash on all sorts of industry, insurance, travel to popular destinations, living expenses, law-suits, and probably one of the number one, public outrage / riots community groupings etc. .. IF they can downplay it in any way they possibly can they will... For instance just as in the Iraq situation in new orleans, if they were prisoners that died, they weren't included in the counts even if it was directly related to the storm, if they were people that are unidentified that they could not identify or the bodies showed a certain degree of post-mortem decay they weren't included as they would balance off alot of it into homicides concluded from the storm and individual survival, or bodies they would say were homicides and thrown out to sea that washed in from surge, etc. .. There are so many ways for them to cover tracks they take every advantage they can #1 reason why with higher death rates the cities can request more aid and funding.

I personally have a lot of family who are members of military / lawyers / gov. officers / and such. People put too much trust into our system. I am not going to say anymore because I do not wish to release information I should not.

I am just letting you know this happens all the time the media is controlled as well...

I myself believe the numbers from Ike are far higher than they are reporting. It doesn't make sense look at when they issued evac. the estimates on how many people stayed to ride it out was like 40,000 or something, how many lived through it? Their numbers just don't add up they never do.

A mando evac. before a watch is even up may be brave but look at how many lives could be saved, they knew how big ike was before it even came close. What is the worst that would've happened people would have had to vacation somewhere a little while but hey they'd still be alive right?

Unless you can provide the absolute proof of your accusations above do not post information such as the above. This site is not in the business of putting out information of this nature that can not be verfied. Talking about how the numbers don't add up is one thing. Proving it is another. Either provide the proof instead of telling others to look for it or don't post it.