TSR Atlantic 2009 forecast (15/8/4)

OURAGAN · #1 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sun Dec 07, 2008 7:27 am

TSR predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2009.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

YouTube · #2 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:33 pm

Cannot argue for or against those numbers. It's pretty easy for the most part: No El Nino, then we're probably going to see 12-15 named storms. Throw in an El Nino, and I would expect to have 12 or less.

I think it has come down to four main factors: El Nino/La Nina, SLP pressure in the Atlantic, African Dust and then the steering currents. When all are favorable, look out. When some are not so favorable or hard to read, all bets are off and it's a matter of what might slip past the goalie, so to speak.

Add to this the MJO pulses like we saw this season and we can fairly easily track where we will probably end up once we get to about August 1.

A forecast in December is not worth much in my book. Something to keep an eye on, but we would do that anyway.

Cleveland Kent Evans · #3 Postby **Cleveland Kent Evans** » Sun Dec 07, 2008 5:16 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:I think it has come down to four main factors: El Nino/La Nina, SLP pressure in the Atlantic, African Dust and then the steering currents. When all are favorable, look out. When some are not so favorable or hard to read, all bets are off and it's a matter of what might slip past the goalie, so to speak.

Excuse me, but what does "SLP" stand for? I couldn't find that one in the Weather Acronyms thread. :?:

#4 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Dec 07, 2008 5:46 pm

Sea Level Pressure

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Dec 07, 2008 8:41 pm

in other words, an average season again next year

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Dec 07, 2008 8:50 pm

Agree with Derek, another average season compared to the 1995-2008 average activity.

YouTube · #7 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Dec 08, 2008 9:57 am

I never thought of it like that. Our new average season is certainly more than the old one. Nicely put.

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 08, 2008 10:47 am

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:33 am

might want to check that Sandy for the hurricans and majors. You have 50 majors in 2005!

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:36 am

Derek Ortt wrote:might want to check that Sandy for the hurricans and majors. You have 50 majors in 2005!

The bars show TS + H + MH!!!

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Dec 08, 2008 12:37 pm

the error is that the plot should be this way. The lowest part should be the number of major hurricanes. The next should be hurricanes, with TS at the top.

Now, if you take a look, you are showing 50 MH for 2005 (wasn't quite that active, though it sure seemed like it)

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Dec 08, 2008 9:38 pm

A forecast in December is not worth much in my book

I always look much more to the April forecasts as those are more complete as much more information about the factors can be included and of course is more closer to the start of the season.But anyway,its always interesting to see what are the first sneak peak forecasts from the experts.

Cleveland Kent Evans · #13 Postby **Cleveland Kent Evans** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 11:48 pm

fact789 wrote:Sea Level Pressure

Thank you!

#14 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Dec 12, 2008 1:17 am

Could we see a year as bad as - or worse than - 2005?

#15 Postby **OuterBanker** » Fri Dec 12, 2008 11:32 am

Negative Crazy, more like 03. We will probably never see a year like 05 again. Just about perfect conditions.

Cyclenall · #16 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:27 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Could we see a year as bad as - or worse than - 2005?

Why are you asking this?

TSR Atlantic 2009 forecast (15/8/4)

TSR Atlantic 2009 forecast (15/8/4)

Re:

Re:

Re: TSR Atlantic 2009 forecast (15/8/4)

Re:

Re: TSR Atlantic 2009 forecast (15/8/4)

Re:

Who is online