Monsoon Prediction in India

[salmon123]

There may be a first cyclone of monsoon 2009, in BAY OF BENGAL within 4 to 5 days
Its only a Prediction but chances are high.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[salmon123]

PROVED


AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N
88.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL

[Chacor]

If this was supposed to be a prediction, you're supposed to include the S2K disclaimer.

[vbhoutex]

If this was supposed to be a prediction, you're supposed to include the S2K disclaimer.

Please include the S2K disclaimer(available at the top of the page) when making any predictions. Also if the information posted is prom an official agency you must link to that information even if you post it.

[salmon123]

No it was just my judgement, and ive included the S2K disclaimer

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not to pick nits, or maybe just a little, I don't think either the US NWS or NHC issues Sub-Continent monsoon advisories.

IMD Monsoon Page

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

May 23, 2009

Onset of southwest monsoon 2009 over Kerala



The following conditions are observed today:

In view of strong cross equatorial flow and extension of its depth upto mid-tropospheric levels, persistent convection over Arabian Sea and adjoining peninsular India and Bay of Bengal and widespread rainfall activity over south Kerala for the last 4 days, India Meteorological Department declares onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala today, the 23rd May 2009.

Northern Limit of Monsoon

Southwest monsoon has further advanced today, the 23rd May 2009, over some more parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of south Kerala and south Tamil Nadu, most parts of south-west & east-central Bay of Bengal and some parts of west-central & north-east Bay of Bengal. The Northern Limit of Monsoon passes through Lat 10.0ºN/ Long 60.0ºE, Lat 10.0ºN/ Long 70.0ºE, Kochi, Madurai, Lat 13.0ºN/ Long 83.0ºE, Lat 16.0ºN/ Long 88.0ºE and Lat 20.0ºN/ Long 93.0ºE.


Current scenario


Current meteorological analysis and interpretation of various Numerical Weather Prediction models indicates further Increase of pressure gradient and strengthening & deepening of cross equatorial flow over Bay of Bengal. The depression currently lying over east-central Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move in a nearly northerly direction towards West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts during next 72 hours.


Forecast for next 48 hours

Under these conditions, southwest monsoon is likely to further advance over some more parts of central & north Bay of Bengal, northeastern states and Gangetic West Bengal.