T-wave Model Map Up

[Scott_inVA]

No hurricane models on this. GFS is loopy b/c the as it closes the wave the vort shifts, as does MSLP. Quite common.

Note also...CMC has nothing until north of Haiti in ~102 hrs. That, FWIW, I think could be a *legit scenario* especially based on what it's doing with the ULL and how the Ridge builds down. We'll see.

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

now it does...extra dot on end of addy removed. Thanks Ticka

Scott

[Guest]

The link doesn't work Scott.

[OtherHD]

How many of these are actually developing this?

[Scott_inVA]

How many of these are actually developing this?

I am uncertain HD. Those displayed (AVN/GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS and CMC). MM5 was weaker last night and have not examined this morning, nor the EC so I don't know on those.

Last year I closely followed the AVN (now GFS or AVN/GFS). The GFS has at least till now, stunk up the field... consistently clueless outside of 3 days. That goes in large measure over eastern CONUS, not just trops.

Also, this is a data sparce region and globals certainly can be impacted by that so until something closes off ~50, I don't get very worked up over these.

Not being a wave train honker, I don't usually run maps on anything east of 40° but everyone was all juiced up over this and the Invest, if it happens, will be slow and too far north to cause trouble (I think )

Scott

[LEWP]

Scott,

Heh, even I wait for an INVEST to start before plotting the low-level vorts from PSU using Modeltracker...you're dedicated.

I do NOT believe that thing on the CMC last night is associated with the same wave (the one currently about to pass S of the CVs), but it magically appears from nowhere from one of the preceeding waves.

[Scott_inVA]

Scott,

Heh, even I wait for an INVEST to start before plotting the low-level vorts from PSU using Modeltracker...you're dedicated.

I do NOT believe that thing on the CMC last night is associated with the same wave (the one currently about to pass S of the CVs), but it magically appears from nowhere from one of the preceeding waves.

I typically pay *no* attention to CV waves other than IR and WVL, but from reading the boards, JB was in meltdown on this so the thought was to use it as a training exercise.

Regarding the CMC, using 0Z data, I may disagree. Running the current wave at 85H and 500, it appears to me this wave weakly holds until SW of PR. I did not run coords on the CMC until, as you note, it magically appears b/c it is devoid of a LLC until it "pops up" on the map. I am unsold any of the 0Z or 12Z runs have the right idea on the ULL (same with me!) so the CMC probably will change too. But it's downstream synop looked reasonable to me.

Thanks

Scott

[chadtm80]

T-wave Model Map Up

Now thats dedication

[Scott_inVA]

T-wave Model Map Up

Now thats dedication

Or, if you talked with my wife...."stupidity" :o

Scott

[chadtm80]

LOL... Has she been talking to my wife?

[mf_dolphin]

There a fine line between dedication and stupidity. The real trick is knowing which side of the line you're on

[JetMaxx]

LOL... Has she been talking to my wife?

Or my grandmother?

[Scott_inVA]

LOL... Has she been talking to my wife?

Or my grandmother?

LOL Perry

My son loves wx and we talk alot about what's coming up potentially. He tells my wife before I get home. then at dinner he'll say "Dad, is it an invest or a real tropical depression?"

This literally is what my wife does: first then followed by

There really needs to be a support group/chat room for spouses during hurricane season!

(or in my case, hurricane season, tornado season and winter storm season)

[Stormsfury]

OMG, I guess I should be happy being single!..

[vbhoutex]

There is hope guys!!! My wife still does the routine that Scott describes, but now leaves out the mad/evil part. She knows I will not change, that I have a severe addiction that needs feeding, so she lets me feed it so I will still pay attention to her too. She even has relented and says she has no problem with me Hurricane chasing as long as we aren't in danger. So sometime this season hopefully our own Hurricane chaser and myself will be reporting to you "live from the eye".

[Toni - 574]

Look guys, until I found you all, my family almost had me believing that I was a sick oooh. I couldn't wait to show them that there was other people just like me. :o (NO OFFENSE,Thank you all of making my life easier now) LOL
Hey MY husband will now even ask what is going on now, and is there anything brewing out there. He is starting to take more interest now and will look at the maps with me. My good friend brought me a weather book one year for my birthday, and I got really excited. She latter informed me that it was suppose to be a joke,(loved her joke I might add).
Good suggestion to have a loved ones support group, have to say I think we may be worse fanatics than football fans.(I'm one of those too,GO BUCS).Anyway it is great to be a part of you all, and I love your stories. Keep up the good work!