San Juan NWS discussion about CV wave

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

The bottomline from that discussion that always when things get hot in the atlantic I have to praise them for great discussions is that it is too early to say if it is going to be a fish and miss the islands or not so we who live in the caribbean must keep watching the track of this developing system.

I know that some models weaken the ridge and have a weakness around 50w and that may allow ERIKA? to go away from the islands but it is too early in the ballgame to affirm that for sure because of the far south position that the surface low is located around 9n.

[Steve H.]

This CV system could become a TD today. Its now on the Closeup Channel 4 loop, but just barely coming into the picture. Convection that you can see looks impressive as it comes into view. Don't bet on models yet; its a bit early, and a bit south. The area near the Bahamas is getting better organized. Let's see if it continues. Cheers!!

[ameriwx2003]

Yes 90l is looking very impressive.If it stays south it can tap the warmer waters.The Globals are still forecasting weakness in the ridge down the road which sends this syetm poleward. Like you said still to early to make any predictions :)

[vbhoutex]

If they don't call TD#8 within 24 hrs., then NHC is playing it way to the right of conservative or someone has dropped ton of DYNOMAT in the middle of it and it has died!! With the banding and outflow starting to set up like it is, IMHO we are within hours of TD#8 if we don't already have it.
The models will get a better grip on TD#8 and it's eventual fate as soon as there is a good initialization, but as everyone says, it is too early to be sure what is going to happen near 50W. Some of that will be determined by the strength of the system at that point.