Canadian saves Houston w/ East Pac Hurricane?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hot and dry. So if a 1994 Hurricane Rosa Part Deux can end the drought, well, sounds good to me. Not so good for the Southern Baja. But its the Canadian.

But on second thought, I see a healthy area in the East Pac.



Ok, it has zero support from what I see. Euro develops a system later, probably, if I had to guess, the system that sparked mild excitement in the Caribbean today.




Ok, Rosa was 4 months later in the year, but a brief review of how the Pacific tropics can rain a lot on Houston,and even cause the San Jacinto River to burst into flames.

Sure we'd be missing the shallow cold surface airmass, but we could still have a boatload of mid and upper moisture and the remnant circulation above the tops of the Sierra Madre (what, about 700 mb?) and end the Houston drought disaster.


OK, the CMC is sort of famous for ersatz, spurious, phantom TCs, but it is also often the first model to see something. IIRC, it was first on Edouard.

[Ptarmigan]

Hot and dry. So if a 1994 Hurricane Rosa Part Deux can end the drought, well, sounds good to me. Not so good for the Southern Baja. But its the Canadian.

But on second thought, I see a healthy area in the East Pac.



Ok, it has zero support from what I see. Euro develops a system later, probably, if I had to guess, the system that sparked mild excitement in the Caribbean today.




Ok, Rosa was 4 months later in the year, but a brief review of how the Pacific tropics can rain a lot on Houston,and even cause the San Jacinto River to burst into flames.

Sure we'd be missing the shallow cold surface airmass, but we could still have a boatload of mid and upper moisture and the remnant circulation above the tops of the Sierra Madre (what, about 700 mb?) and end the Houston drought disaster.


OK, the CMC is sort of famous for ersatz, spurious, phantom TCs, but it is also often the first model to see something. IIRC, it was first on Edouard.

Would be nice to see rain. Thank you for linking my thread on the October 1994 Flood.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Model seems to have backed off. I don't recall too many Pacific systems affecting Texas until the Autumn months anyway.


They spent much of the last year laying a 50 inch water main from the San Jacinto river to our general area. Our MUD uses subsurface water from pumps, which tastes acceptable, though not as good as bottled. The river water, no doubt, was meant for further residential expansion, which hasn't happened yet. But if the water tables drop, maybe we'll wind up drinking river water.

But at least it isn't Trinity water, the semi-purified and filtered eflfuent of Dallas and Fort Worth.

[srainhoutx]

Model seems to have backed off. I don't recall too many Pacific systems affecting Texas until the Autumn months anyway.


They spent much of the last year laying a 50 inch water main from the San Jacinto river to our general area. Our MUD uses subsurface water from pumps, which tastes acceptable, though not as good as bottled. The river water, no doubt, was meant for further residential expansion, which hasn't happened yet. But if the water tables drop, maybe we'll wind up drinking river water.

But at least it isn't Trinity water, the semi-purified and filtered eflfuent of Dallas and Fort Worth.

Remember Ed that there are 2, 10 foot diameter lines that run from the Trinity to a Water Treatment plant just N of Ellington Field. RE: a Rosa type system, I will concur that Late September through Mid October may be our only hope this year.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It is sort of back...

[Ed Mahmoud]

No mention of Pacific tropics, at all, or any other tropics, in NWS HGX AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
224 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO CHANGE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER 90`S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70`S...AND
NO CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND 850 TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO 18-21C ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RETREAT TO THE MIDDLE 90`S. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AROUND THE
REGION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF MOVEMENT. MODELS DO INDICATE A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND.

[NDG]

Ridge should be moving on top of TX into the western Plain & eastern Rockies from weekend into next week so I really doubt that you will get any moisture from any pacific system.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ridge should be moving on top of TX into the western Plain & eastern Rockies from weekend into next week so I really doubt that you will get any moisture from any pacific system.

Actually, I doubt we'll get more than very shallow low level moisture from any source for weeks and weeks. Hopefully the warm ENSO lasts into Winter, and we get an active Southern branch crashing into California and on into Texas.

5, 10, 15 day 850 mb temp anamolies aren't happy...







Kinda dry...

[gatorcane]

Hmmm. I don't quite understand the point of this topic. First it is the CMC which is known to spin up just about anything it can in the long-range.

Second, "saves houston" from what? These words imply two things: 1) something bad existed and 2) a threat was imminent. Was there ever an imminent threat to begin with here?

Thirdly, something from the EPAC is very likely not going to cause Houston in the GOM to be in any kind of threat zone...

Sorry if I am confused here...

[tolakram]

Might give them some rain.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm. I don't quite understand the point of this topic. First it is the CMC which is known to spin up just about anything it can in the long-range.

Second, "saves houston" from what? These words imply two things: 1) something bad existed and 2) a threat was imminent. Was there ever an imminent threat to begin with here?

Thirdly, something from the EPAC is very likely not going to cause Houston in the GOM to be in any kind of threat zone...

Sorry if I am confused here...

1994- remnants of EPac Hurricane Rosa crossed Mexico, dumped so much rain in Houston the San Jacinto River scoured out oil pipeline crossings under the river, and the San Jacinto caught fire.

Usually, EPac systems causing rain in Houston is an Autumnal situation.

But yesterday, Canadian showed hurricane approaching Cabo San Lucas, and implied attendant 500 mb low was displacing mondo-ridge Eastward, which would allow whatever could clear the mountains to visit Texas.

It hasn't rained at my house for weeks. Farmers who don't artificially irrigate are in big trouble. Rain from the remnants of an EPac system would be just what the doctor ordered.