Development between Africa and Lesser Antilles (6/28 - 7/4)

[cycloneye]

Envirommental conditions for that wavelike feature that has emerged Africa are unfavorable as it has to contend with a large area of dust ahead.



Sidebar=The thread will die next Saturday,meaning that if something starts to organize after that day,a new thread will be started by any member as this one was made only for this week.

[Gustywind]

Hurdles of dust...doubtfull about any developpement with this thing. Let's see if the second cluster on Africa more easter could eventually "maintain" some decent convection before approaching the CV islands...in spite of the horrible patches of dust

[Ed Mahmoud]

Decent looking wave at low latitude approaching the Lesser Antilles, and another decent looking wave, with most of the showers in the ITCZ, mid Atlantic.

Neither one should develop before the Caribbean, and if the Euro 30 to 40 knot low level Easterlies forecast is correct, they won't develop in the Caribbean either.


But they look good enough, considering how generally unfavorable the MDR is, to be real candidates for East Pac development.

The waves coming off Africa and over Africa look good as well. I think we may get 2 or 3 East Pac storms in the next two weeks.

In my humble and amateur opinion.

[HURAKAN]

You can see the dust.

[wxman57]

Nope.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nope.

Nope, no development this week/month in the MDR, or nope, you can't see the African dust.


I suspect the former.

Just read the JB column, and to summarize, slower than normal, mostly/all in Aug/Sept/Oct, most will either be from polar systems or tropical waves interacting with polar systems, and because they do form mostly outside the MDR and closer to the US, land, especially the Atlantic, is at relatively higher risk.

[wxman57]

Nope.

Nope, no development this week/month in the MDR, or nope, you can't see the African dust.


I suspect the former.

Just read the JB column, and to summarize, slower than normal, mostly/all in Aug/Sept/Oct, most will either be from polar systems or tropical waves interacting with polar systems, and because they do form mostly outside the MDR and closer to the US, land, especially the Atlantic, is at relatively higher risk.

Yep and Yep.

[KWT]

Makes a lot of sense given the shear in the deep tropics should be quite high.

I'd forget the Cape Verde regions till at least August in such a set-up, just too much shear out there.

[BigA]

Interesting little flareup in the central Atlantic, but very far south, so it's probably just ITCZ related, and I would be SHOCKED if it developed. I felt that I had to mention it though.

[Sanibel]

Shows that the waves are finding conditions good enough to 'stick'.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The wave at 35ºW might have a surface circulation.


Of course, all the showers and storms are confined to the ITCZ.


Well, a steady diet of tropical waves on its way for the tropical East-Pac.

[wxman57]

I don't think there's any circulation out there by 35W south of 10N. In any case, this wave will be crashing into South America in 3-4 days. Look at all the dust in the air around the wave. Probably muddy rain out there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think there's any circulation out there by 35W south of 10N. In any case, this wave will be crashing into South America in 3-4 days. Look at all the dust in the air around the wave. Probably muddy rain out there.

Not down by the storms South of 10ºN. There is at least a hint of a twist in the low cloud field North of 15º.


Of course it isn't going to develop before the EPac, IMHO.