UK Met Office: Season (Semi) Cancel

[Ed Mahmoud]

3 to 9 named storms, 6 most likely.

Expected ACE of 60.

[Derek Ortt]

good. We have seen more than enough destruction the past few years

[Emmett_Brown]

Pretty low numbers. Even '97, year of a record breaking strong Nino had 7 named storms, so a season with 6 named storms would be pretty spectacularly quiet, and quite frankly, I don't buy it. The Nino in place currently is nowhere near as strong and large as the '97 event.

[KWT]

The UKMO certainly are going for a very slow season, I personally think its on the low side of what to be expected given we aren't going to be in a strong El Nino and the Atlantic waters have warmed some recently. The top end of the range is probably much more likely then the bottom but we shall see!

[OpieStorm]

Low numbers doesn't necessarily mean a less destructive year. 1992 was a bust number wise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Low numbers doesn't necessarily mean a less destructive year. 1992 was a bust number wise.

1983 was the most boringest season ever.

Houston. (Note- I wasn't here then)
[img]http://www.aawe.org/images/gallery/HurricaneAliciaHouston(1983).jpg[/img]


Edit- I guess copy and paste the URL...

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not buying this either. I see nothing data wise to suggest a below average season.

[wxman57]

I'm not buying this either. I see nothing data wise to suggest a below average season.

Data that suggest a quiet season:

1. Fair chance of moderate El Nino = increased shear in the deep tropics (south of 20N), thus inhibiting development.

2.SSTs in MDR slightly below normal = a likely reduction in the number of major hurricanes.

3. Long-range predictions (ECMWF) of pressures one to two standard deviations above normal across the deep tropics for August/September could result in stiff trade winds south of 20N, inhibiting development

Now I think that 6 may be a bit on the low side, given how generously names have been tossed out in recent years. But I could really see only having 3 storms in August and 4-5 in September along with 1 or 2 late-season storms as El Nino shuts down development.

[AnnularCane]

Didn't they also predict low-ish numbers for 2007 and 2008? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read that somewhere.

[wxman57]

Didn't they also predict low-ish numbers for 2007 and 2008? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read that somewhere.

If by "they" you mean Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray at CSU or Dr. Saunders at TSR, then you can check past predictions here:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/index_.html

June Forecasts:
For 2007 - 17/9/5 (Gray/Klotzbach) 16/9/4 (TSR)
For 2008 - 15/8/4 (Gray/Klotzbach) 15/8/4 (TSR)

So, no, no one predicted a very quiet season in either 2007 or 2008, or even in 2006.

[AnnularCane]

If by "they" you mean Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray at CSU or Dr. Saunders at TSR, then you can check past predictions here:

I meant UK Met.

[wxman57]

If by "they" you mean Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray at CSU or Dr. Saunders at TSR, then you can check past predictions here:

I meant UK Met.

I haven't seen any earlier forecasts by that office. It'll be interesting to see how the season turns out. I think we may well see less than 10 named storms this year. Not really a big deal, as we've seen many such sub 10-year seasons in the past 50 years (less so in the satellite era).

By the way, the ECMWF is predicting pressures across the Atlantic to be as high as what was observed in 1983, when only 4 named storms formed. So if the European is correct, then the UK Met office may be on the right track as far as even fewer than 9 named storms.

[gatorcane]

seems like a reasonable forecast to me Wxman. About average to just below average.

All indicators are indeed pointing to this outcome at this point. Question remains, however, out of the few hurricanes that do develop, and particularly those major hurricanes should any develop (which at least one will likely develop), will the pattern force them all out to sea or will any be landfalling?

Of course all it takes is one system....

[Emmett_Brown]

If by "they" you mean Dr. Klotzbach & Dr. Gray at CSU or Dr. Saunders at TSR, then you can check past predictions here:

I meant UK Met.

I haven't seen any earlier forecasts by that office. It'll be interesting to see how the season turns out. I think we may well see less than 10 named storms this year. Not really a big deal, as we've seen many such sub 10-year seasons in the past 50 years (less so in the satellite era).

By the way, the ECMWF is predicting pressures across the Atlantic to be as high as what was observed in 1983, when only 4 named storms formed. So if the European is correct, then the UK Met office may be on the right track as far as even fewer than 9 named storms.

Interesting. Is there a link to the ECMWF long range forecast you can share? Also, Wx, in your experience, how accurate are long range forecasts of the Atlantic ridge/trades?

[clfenwi]

Didn't they also predict low-ish numbers for 2007 and 2008? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read that somewhere.

2007 forecast was for 10 storms in the July-November time-frame.

2008 forecast called for 15.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The range is 3 to 9.

If we only get 3 named storms, we will live through another amazing record setting year.


And if there is any correlation between low TC numbers and Orlando Florida cold, well, Orlando, FL 32813 could be even colder than the frigid December 1983 I lived there.

I love being part of a record.

[Cyclone1]

6? Really? Ooooookay... I can see a 1992-94 scenario, low numbers, generally weak storms (with 1 notable exception). I'd go higher than 3-6, though. Seems like ultra-wishful thinking. 9 makes sense. My unofficial estimation would be 8-11 storms this year.