Disturbance in the Carribean Sea

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

This area just isn't going to develop folks. Should be into Central America by this time tomorrow.

Looks how nice and clear the entire Atlantic basin is. From the looks of things, nothing in the tropics here will be happening for the next 10 days at least. It wouldn't surprise me if we make it to August without any named storms. Too early to tell for sure though.

[wxman57]

No named storm until August 8th.

[MGC]

A rather bold prediction there 57....I think we MIGHT have something form later in the month. I'm wondering if the 9 named systems I forecast might be a bit high. But, no one has a clue what good ole Mother Nature has up her sleeve....MGC

[wxman57]

A rather bold prediction there 57....I think we MIGHT have something form later in the month. I'm wondering if the 9 named systems I forecast might be a bit high. But, no one has a clue what good ole Mother Nature has up her sleeve....MGC

Not bold at all, if I"m wrong then not many will remember. But if I'm right then I'll appear a genius.

But the current state of the tropics makes me think that we won't see anything form at least in the deep tropics (south of 25N) for the next 3-4 weeks.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

A rather bold prediction there 57....I think we MIGHT have something form later in the month. I'm wondering if the 9 named systems I forecast might be a bit high. But, no one has a clue what good ole Mother Nature has up her sleeve....MGC

your guess is as good as mine. As good as Dr. Lyons , as good bastardi's as good as a random hippie on the street. Nobody knows, and anybody pretending is shooting at the hip.

See: 2004 , No storms formed till August 1st.


Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Francis, Jeanne, Ivan. gaston.

[gatorcane]

I'm with WxMan on this one, conditions in the tropics are terrible for significant development at least through the rest of this month. I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of very sheared convection area pop up sometime during the next few weeks that may raise a few eyebrows, but getting a named system is another story and I just don't see it happening until August.

Then again, July is typically a hostile month for TC formation, conditions are almost definitely going to be better in August -- but there are still several indicators pointing at a non-hyperactive (i.e. subpar) season -- those that Wxman mentioned.

[MGC]

July typically is a slow month. Aug-Sept are the bread and butter...We'll get something to track eventually....MGC

[clfenwi]

My simple statistical look at Wxman's call shows it to be pretty reasonable. My count of seasons (1944-2008) that lacked June storms showed 18 having a storm in July and 16 in August.*** If it were to bust, I would expect it to be on something like Alex of 2004, vice something like a storm developing in the MDR on July 15. That would be quite the shocker, given current conditions.

*** Your numbers may very slightly depending on how strictly you count June storms. For example, I counted the May hurricane as June, but disregarded other out of season storms.

[ConvergenceZone]

A rather bold prediction there 57....I think we MIGHT have something form later in the month. I'm wondering if the 9 named systems I forecast might be a bit high. But, no one has a clue what good ole Mother Nature has up her sleeve....MGC

Not bold at all, if I"m wrong then not many will remember. But if I'm right then I'll appear a genius.

But the current state of the tropics makes me think that we won't see anything form at least in the deep tropics (south of 25N) for the next 3-4 weeks.

I think you might be right wxman. We may be another month out before we see our first named storm, and that would us there, August 9th?... It might just be one of those late starts, and if we are lucky, a quick ending in September too....

[Ed Mahmoud]

A rather bold prediction there 57....I think we MIGHT have something form later in the month. I'm wondering if the 9 named systems I forecast might be a bit high. But, no one has a clue what good ole Mother Nature has up her sleeve....MGC

Not bold at all, if I"m wrong then not many will remember. But if I'm right then I'll appear a genius.

But the current state of the tropics makes me think that we won't see anything form at least in the deep tropics (south of 25N) for the next 3-4 weeks.

I think you might be right wxman. We may be another month out before we see our first named storm, and that would us there, August 9th?... It might just be one of those late starts, and if we are lucky, a quick ending in September too....

As few as 3 storms, per the UKMO 3-9 storm forecast. A record setter. On December 31st, if we only have 3 storms, we'll all drink too much (well, many of us) to celebrate living through a record setting year.

[Sanibel]

Another ghost wave approaching Trinidad from the Atlantic. Looks like a TUTT in the west Caribbean on WV.

[tailgater]

Not enough time over water for this to develop IMHO.





I hope this is an error on on the amount of rain in the last 6 hours. Looking the IR sat. loop this area has been under some pretty big T-storms but 14 inches! I hope I'm reading that wrong.
Current Weather Conditions:
Villahermosa , Mexico
(MMVA) 18-00N 092-49W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 09, 2009 - 08:14 PM EDTJul 09, 2009 - 07:14 PM CDTJul 09, 2009 - 06:14 PM MDTJul 09, 2009 - 05:14 PM PDTJul 09, 2009 - 04:14 PM ADTJul 09, 2009 - 03:14 PM HDT
2009.07.10 0014 UTC
Wind from the N (350 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT)
Visibility 6 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light drizzle
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 75 F (24 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.84 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
ob MMVA 100014Z 35005KT 6SM -DZ FEW005 BKN016 OVC060 24/23 A2984 RMK 8/76/ CBS TS S CONDS VAR

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Precipitation Accumulation
Precipitation
Amount
0.35 inches In the 3 hours preceding Jul 09, 2009 - 05:52 PM EDT / 2009.07.09 2152 UTC
14.65 inches In the 6 hours preceding Jul 09, 2009 - 08:05 PM EDT / 2009.07.10 0005 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------