New form of El Nino may increase Atlantic storms

[Ptarmigan]

Never thought there would an El Nino in the Central Pacific. I think of them off the coast of South America. Interesting stuff.

[Tampa_God]

Hurricane Alex didn't form until July 31, so we could see another repeat of 2004 if these facts are correct. Not into these things, but 2009 saw the same number of storms as 2003 did. But that doesn't really mean much.

Stay safe guys!

[AnnularCane]

Hurricane Alex didn't form until July 31, so we could see another repeat of 2004 if these facts are correct. Not into these things, but 2009 saw the same number of storms as 2003 did. But that doesn't really mean much.

Stay safe guys!

Clairvoyant, or typo?

(Sorry, couldn't resist.)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Does anyone have anything suggesting this year is more like 2004 and less like 1997?

[MWatkins]

1. I think Dr. Masters covers this quite well. If you look at the sub-surface pattern most of the subsurface warming is happening in the eastern half of the EPAC. As this warm water works it's way up, warming is only going to increase over there. The only chance I see to change the pattern is if the easterlies increase and start cooling the EPAC water and shifting the warm anoms westward.

2. The July subsurface map looks nothing like the 2004 event.

In July 2004, most of the warm subsurface anoms were in the central part of the basin, relatively deep and not wide spread:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 04/Jul.gif

In fact, there were cold anoms in the east pacific...

Compare this to 2009:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 09/Jul.gif

Very, very warm east pac water and no cold anoms sticking out anywhere.

To me this looks more like the classic El Nino event that is going to evolve in the east and spread westward.

3. I hate to say this again, but in my opinion Judith Curry is a classic global warming/hurricane fear monger. I stood and watched her laugh in Dr Grays face in 2006, downright insult the man and tell him how far under the reality his slightly above average storm forecast for 06 was. She proclaimed we would easily have 20 that year, and that Dr Gray had no idea what he was talking about.

Turns out Dr Gray missed his forecast...it was too HIGH.

This looks like another attempt to link hurricanes to warming. I am NOT saying it's politically motivated, but I have serious questions about linking what is happening now to more Atlantic hurricanes. This is a bigger agenda, and I don't understand why they keep bringing it up.

I don't have a PHD. But I still try to call 'em like I see 'em.

MW

[MWatkins]

Does anyone have anything suggesting this year is more like 2004 and less like 1997?

Hi Ed...

Here is July 2004 sub surface:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 04/Jul.gif

Here is July 1997:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 97/Jul.gif

And here is July 2009:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 09/Jul.gif

The pattern is a much closer match between 2004 and 1997, with 1997 being far more extreme in terms of the span and intensity of the warming.

To me, the pattern looks like a warmer version of the 2006 sub-surface heat map:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/result ... 06/Jul.gif

MW

[cycloneye]

Hey Mike! I have a question about the SOI turning positive in the last 7 days.Any effect on ENSO the recent positive readings or not?

[MWatkins]

Hey Mike! I have a question about the SOI turning positive in the last 7 days.Any effect on ENSO the recent positive readings or not?

Hi Luis!

Since this episode hasn't fully played out yet, it is indeed strange that the SOI is positive given all of the other things we are seeing...

1. Warm surface and subsurface water in most of the equatorial Pacific

2. Trades are weaker than normal

3. Cloudiness near the dateline is increasing

Using the Occam's razor principle (the most likely solution in the absence of overwhelming data is probably the correct one), the positive SOI is probably an anomaly that will correct back to negative as this ENSO event develops. Maybe something we don't know about is going to interfere with the warming process, or maybe this is just a slight flaw in the index. Statistically, indexes aren't always perfect and don't always explain things (sometimes there are subtle things in the atmosphere that the index isn't able to observe or explain).

For anyone not wanting a warm event, the positve SOI is the last holdout that it may not occur, and it's something to watch. But personally, I think it will turn negative over the next month as this episode develops...but I have been wrong many times before!

MW

[cycloneye]

For anyone not wanting a warm event, the positve SOI is the last holdout that it may not occur, and it's something to watch. But personally, I think it will turn negative over the next month as this episode develops...but I have been wrong many times before!

Thank you Mike for the complete explanation.Well,for one more day the last holdout still does not want to fade. What we have to watch is if it stays positive for the next 2-3 weeks.