Florida Keys may ease hurricane-evacuation policy

[Frank2]

jinftl,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, but in 1935 emergency communication throughout Florida was limited to a sometimes very unreliable "hard wire" telephone connection -- or telegram (based on the 1800's telegraph system still in use at that time), if voice communication failed...

Today, a person can hardly sneeze without the entire world knowing about it, and when it comes to weather, it would unfortunately almost have to be the surprise hurricane to catch everyone off guard....

As the NHC often says, intensity forecasting is still the one weak area in meteorology, so it is understandable that Monore County would want to evacuate even in the event of a weak hurricane, for fear of people being caught off-guard, but there still needs to be a better way to do this, since people quickly become fickle and will not constantly evcuate for systems that do not turn out to be a Keys problem...

It is a dilemma, that's for sure, but I still think part of the problem, even with the diminished permanent population as others mentioned, are the crowds that drive down from South Florida every weekend - that was not a problem even just two or three decades ago (as I recall) but it is a problem now, since the South Florida (and Central Florida) population continues to grow, and so do the thousands that drive to the Keys each day...

[jinftl]

I agree...there is better communication now. While it does not happen often, even advanced communication couldn't do much in the scenario where a ts/cat 1 grows to a cat 5 in less than 24 hours and less than 18 hours from landfall...that rare scenario has to always be in the back of decisionmaker's minds (as well as the public's). There are some areas where facing that threat is particularly dangerous...there is no where to run and hide (or even drive to) in the Keys for significant shelter from the wind and esp the water when a storm is so close. Even driving 5 or 10 miles inland to a shelter isn't an option in the Keys when the threat is imminent.

jinftl,

Yes, I understand what you are saying, but in 1935 electronic communication throughout Florida was limited to either sometimes very limited "hard wire" telephone communication, or by telegram...

Today, a person can hardly sneeze without the entire world knowing about it, and when it comes to weather, it would unfortunately be the surprise hurricane that would catch everyone off guard....

As the NHC often says, intensity forecasting is still the one weak area in meteorology, so it is understandable that Monore County would want to evacuate even in the event of a weak hurricane, for fear of people being caught off-guard, but there still needs to be a better way to do this, since people quickly become fickle and will not constantly evcuate for a system that does not turn out to be a Keys problem...

It is a dilemma, that's for sure, but I still think part of the problem, even with the diminished permanent population as others mentioned, are the crowds that drive down from South Florida every weekend - that was not a problem decades ago (as I recall) but it is a problem now, since the South Florida (and Central Florida) population continues to grow and so do the thousands that go to the Keys each weekend...

[Frank2]

True - that's why, aside from Key West, living in the Keys should only be for the visitor, not the permanent resident, since the islands as you said are too vulnerable (those Wilma photos were scary, for sure -- I evacuated to Sebring for that one)...