Keeping an eye on the GOM

[gboudx]

I'll post the morning e-mail from Jeff Lindner concerning our discussion for the GOM...

DFW NWS has some support in the AM AFD for Lindner's last paragraph. Though they don't mention the TUTT feature.

CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE AGAIN BY TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW SHOWING A 700-850MB TROUGH INTENSIFYING OVER
TEXAS. WE HAVE SEEN FLASHES OF THIS SOLUTION FROM THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST WEEK AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY MAY OFFER MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINS TO THE REGION. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR
NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL...BUT BEARS WATCH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian takes the first wave, starts developing it in the Western Caribbean, into the Gulf.

Mean steering seems to suggest the Florida Panhandle-ish area would be threatened if the Canadians system developed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

new GFS looks like a more tranquil version of the 12Z Canadian, wave approaching L. Antilles organizes somewhat, but not to the point of being a TC, is drawn up into the Eastern Gulf, before crossing Florida and getting caught in the Westerlies.

[tailgater]

Trough in the Gulf this time of year shouldn't be written off too quickly, of course in would take days to develop but some pretty good convection firing off this morning.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... H&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

There's a persistent trough-like feature dipping into the GOM. My guess is it will take an Atlantic wave to blow out the negativity like Bonnie did in 2004.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS rapidly spins up a feature moving off SE Texas in the next two to three days, but just as rapidly wind sit down before it moves into Louisiana.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009071812&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Looking as good as it gets.


Very weak surface reflection.

Perhaps the quick weakening is because it tries to become warm core in a very unfavorable upper level environment

[Sanibel]

Think we might have a twist developing in the trough near 29N-85W.

[TYNI]

Think we might have a twist developing in the trough near 29N-85W.

Possibly 29N-95W as well?

[Aric Dunn]

Im pretty sure you all might like this..


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/cz.html