Where will the next EPAC storm come from?

[clfenwi]

Watching the visible satellite loop of the basin, there are a couple of interesting areas, described thusly in the 18Z TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N TO 17N ALONG 117W AND IS MOVING
W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 121W. BROAD CYCLONIC
IS CURRENTLY IS CENTERED AROUND 10N117W.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N107W TO 16N105W AND IS MOVING WESTWARD
SIMILAR TO THE TROPICAL WAVES TO ITS E AND W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.

Looking at the models, we may have a fight on our hands as to which system may become Enrique.

The 12Z GFS depicts this at 60 hours:


And doing something that suspiciously looks like merging the two together, depicts this at 108h:


NOGAPS alternatively goes with this at 60h:


and at 108h:


European gives favor to the trough.


The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product is more focused on the trough than the wave further east and the overall probability for the basin is near a season high. However, the last spike was a false alarm, with the bulls-eyed area being in the vicinity of the area it is now. At the time, I could not figure out why it was tripping out like that, as the area appeared to be clear. The focus in the developmental version of the product is a bit more reasonable.

EDIT: I totally had not looked at the Tropical Weather Outlook before posting this... ...both areas are "Code Yellow":

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AT IS MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

It looks like both areas will develop.

ABPZ20 KNHC 031130
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[HURAKAN]

EPAC ramping up in August.

[wxman57]

Interesting - two moderate chances for development and not an invest to be found. The one on the right looks like it has a better shot of developing.

[HURAKAN]

Sometimes you wonder how is that an invest is tagged because we had 98L on a system that clearly had no chances at development but this disturbance is not an invest yet and it looks on the right path to depression status. I still expect 96E later today.