Is Joe right?

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brunota2003
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Re: Re:

#21 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Sep 11, 2009 1:40 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Can you name a system as subtropical when it has fronts attached to it, and is not shedding them?


Tropical and subtropical systems need to be non-frontal. That's why I politely disagree with JB and wxman57.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#SUBCYC

That's what I thought, was just curious since some promets were saying it appeared to be a subtropical cyclone, but there are fronts clearly attached to it

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CENTERED
OVER NEW JERSEY
...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

2. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS TO NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN



Image from earlier this morning (the area labeled cold front was certainly acting like one, even though the HPC charts didnt label one that I know of):
Image
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Re: Is Joe right?

#22 Postby jconsor » Sat Sep 12, 2009 1:49 pm

The satellite image posted clearly shows the subtropical low had separated from the cold and warm fronts. The low pressure was near NJ at the time, while the cold and warm fronts were out in the Atlantic south of Nantucket.
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#23 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:09 pm

If you follow the trail of storms, they are still connected.
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Re: Is Joe right?

#24 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 12, 2009 2:49 pm

Thursday afternoon was the time for classification, prior to the low merging with the fronts yesterday. All indications were warm core and non-frontal. Front wasn't far away, though.
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