TC Development NE of Bahamas?

[wxman57]

I guess everyone is really asleep out there. As I look at the tropics today, the main area of possible development appears to be the frontal wave just east of the Bahamas. GFS has been developing it for the past day or two as it accelerates off to the north past Bermuda. Yeah, there's not a great chance it'll get named, but I think it has a better chance of being named than anything else out there today. Shear looks relatively low, and it does appear to have good outflow developing on top of it.

[Sanibel]

People are used to everything not developing I guess.


This is persistent anyway. It's the convecting remnant of a front.

[wxman57]

This type of development is quite common early and late season.

[Frank2]

Yes, it appears that the hurricane chasers are on hiatus for the rest of the season - guess you can call them "fair weather friends" (pun intented)...

Anyway, I was also wondering about this area - surprising that the NHC has not mentioned it in the TWO, but likely to mention in the next update...

Last evening I could see a spin on radar east of Andros Island, and that was moving NNE, and outflow of the entire disturbance is fair-good to the N and NE, so very possible that something might form in the next day or two, as it moves NE...

As said, that's usually a sign that the season is almost over, since the NE-moving hybrid system that forms in this area is usually only seen in April/May or October/November...

Frank

[ozonepete]

I noticed it yesterday too. I was just waiting for you, wxman57.

[artist]

Yes, it appears that the hurricane chasers are on hiatus for the rest of the season - guess you can call them "fair weather friends" (pun intented)...

Anyway, I was also wondering about this area - surprising that the NHC has not mentioned it in the TWO, but likely to mention in the next update...

Last evening I could see a spin on radar east of Andros Island, and that was moving NNE, and outflow of the entire disturbance is fair-good to the N and NE, so very possible that something might form in the next day or two, as it moves NE...

As said, that's usually a sign that the season is almost over, since the NE-moving hybrid system that forms in this area is usually only seen in April/May or October/November...

Frank

and unfortunately near the time when Fl seems to get hit most, other than September.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[lester]

lookin' good

[hurricanetrack]

Was wondering why no love was shown for it on the 2pm TWO. It is picked up on the GFS and develops quickly- though it looks like it has a front with it on that model. We had a great discussion with Dr. Beven on our program Weds night about non-tropical vs tropical systems. Interesting that even though this was an El Nino year, we really have not had much frontal development per se. I am not seeing a front around this system, so if it pops, would it be more subtropical in nature? Might get the "G" storm out of it at least.

[Dean4Storms]

The TW east of the Antilles is percolating tonight and I wouldn't write it off just yet either.

[Sanibel]

There's some kind of atmospheric condition out there, whether it be shear or air quality, that is just plain preventing storms. Looks like subsidence. Beats me.

[supercane]

Seemed like convective activity was enhanced with upper level divergence for a time, but it was all just sound and fury.

supercane