Strong Wave east of Windward islands

[cycloneye]

Very off-topic:

We have Tropical Storm Grace not from this wave but in the North Atlantic near the Azores islands.See the details at Active Storms forum.

[cycloneye]

Convection becoming more symetric.

[gatorcane]

That projected 500mb ridge developing from the NE Gulf, east to 50W by 120hrs (ECMWF) does bother me, as TCs like to develop south of such ridges. One good thing is that the projected 850mb wind flow across the Caribbean south of the ridge is in the 25-35 kt range. That may limit convergence once the system reaches the eastern Caribbean. And the ridge might be strong enough to keep this system farther south, far enough to push it into Central America should it develop.

Looking at the long-range H5 charts suggest that if it develops, it could head through the Caribbean and maybe make a NW turn then N because there is quite a cold front that is expected to head towards the GOM and FL by next weekend. That would be a classic October setup should that unfold. Hopefully it goes poof and we don't have to worry about it but certainly it has my attention at the moment given the time of year we are in.

Wxman57 you have that can of RAID handy? Please fire away.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 91L so the thread is lockedL.Go to the 91L thread at active storms forum to continue the discussions about this system.