Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Something more to watch!

[boca]

This tropical wave looks healthy and it won't run into South America like 92L.This looks invest worthy

[Gustywind]

This tropical wave looks healthy and it won't run into South America like 92L.This looks invest worthy

What is your reasoning for that Boca? Can you explain please, because us in the islands continue to monitor any waves east of the EC.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

Just a moderate tropical wave embedded in the ITCZ. Very low chance of development due to a combination of strong easterly low-level flow and moderate to strong westerly upper-level flow over the system. Strong shear.

[boca]

This tropical wave looks healthy and it won't run into South America like 92L.This looks invest worthy

What is your reasoning for that Boca? Can you explain please, because us in the islands continue to monitor any waves east of the EC.
Gustywind

This wave might lift further north than 92L which is along the NE edge of South America.This new area might have to be watched more carefully for you guys in the islands, but first it has to detach itself from the ITCZ.Hopefuuly if it develops it will recurve away from the islands.

[Gustywind]

This tropical wave looks healthy and it won't run into South America like 92L.This looks invest worthy

What is your reasoning for that Boca? Can you explain please, because us in the islands continue to monitor any waves east of the EC.
Gustywind

This wave might lift further north than 92L which is along the NE edge of South America.This new area might have to be watched more carefully for you guys in the islands, but first it has to detach itself from the ITCZ.Hopefuuly if it develops it will recurve away from the islands.

Tkanks Boca we appreciate your analysis. Any models showing the recurve? For the rest in my opinion of amateur...we should wait and see, if if(a big if ) this could be something as that is not even an Invest!

[boca]

No this doesn't even have model support. Its just something to watch to see if it dettaches itself and develops.This might not amount to anything its just guessing right now.

[wxman57]

No model support because it's currently experiencing 20-30 kts of wind shear, and that shear increases as it moves west and/or moves farther northward. Conditions across the Tropical Atlantic are currently very hostile toward development.

[cycloneye]

Is a mess.

[wxman57]

RRRRIIIIIIIPPPPPPP. That's the sound of shear ripping it apart. Could also represent the rest of the season (RIP).

[Macrocane]

RRRRIIIIIIIPPPPPPP. That's the sound of shear ripping it apart. Could also represent the rest of the season (RIP).

You know, after TD-8 some people thought that the season was over, and then Grace and Henri suddenly came. I don't see anything with this wave but I wouldn't say that the season is now resting in peace though if a new strom develops it will be ripped apart like Ana, Danny, Erika and Henri were.

[jinftl]

Not sure if this is the same system as was referenced originally in this post....but do we have some hyrbrid system....or even Ida..... in the making around 30N, 30W?



NOAA has introduced some probability of tc formation in the latest update to this graphic




Shear is actually lower in that exact region of the atlantic right now