Possible Hawaiian Hurricane next week

[Derek Ortt]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


UKMET has a weaker feature

If this is true, the USA will not escape the 2009 season without a hurricane landfall

[Macrocane]

The Canadian model has been consistent predicting a tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific for the last 3 days or so, and now GFS is in agreement, certainly something to watch.

[Derek Ortt]

18Z GFS has it near Kauai

However, more here will probably be interested in the weak CV system is spins up

[Andrew92]

Oh no, please not Kauai! I have two close friends on that island. Best yet, don't develop it, keep it weak, or keep it away from land.

-Andrew92

[Frank2]

If this is true, the USA will not escape the 2009 season without a hurricane landfall

But if it does (and is likely to), it'd be the perfect season spoken of last July, in a different sort of way...

Frank

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

0Z Canadian has this again.

[HURAKAN]

In three days

[HurricaneBelle]

From the Honolulu AFD:

AS EARLY AS SUNDAY...RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS PREDICT LARGE GYRES TO
START SPINNING UP IN THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS...AND THEN TO MOVE NORTH CLOSE TO THE STATE. THESE FEATURES
BEHAVE MORE BELIEVABLY IN THE 06 UTC RUN...FOLLOWING THE MEAN FLOW
AROUND THEM...BUT STILL APPROACH UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE...BRINGING
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLIES AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE
DEEP TROPICS TO THE STATE. INTERESTINGLY...THE 00 UTC ECMWF RUN
PREDICTED INCREASED CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD OVER THE STATE AS
WELL...SO PERHAPS THE MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARD A CONSENSUS.

THIS CONSENSUS MIGHT CONSIST OF A MODEST TROUGH PASSING SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES...AND AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
ALONG SLOPES FACING SOUTHEAST...AND ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT THIS PERIOD WILL REQUIRE
CONTINUED ATTENTION.

[Macrocane]

Code Yellow:

400 AM HST THU OCT 15 2009

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. An area of disorganized, but persistent, showers and thunderstorms associated with an east to west oriented surface trough is located about 870 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. There may be some slow development of this system as it moves slowly westward during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through early Saturday morning.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/

[tolakram]

And still



GFS does not show it, but look at the storm near Baja.

[Derek Ortt]

GFS does look to have something, but it shifted farther west than before

[tolakram]

This looks to be the system.



CMC is a bit slower with it.



GFS is again further west and this time looks to be stronger.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r2_floater

[tolakram]

Now Invest 94E

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106869&p=1933011#p1933011

[cycloneye]

Thread locked as is Invest 94E.Go to Active Storms forum to continue the discussions about this system.