Florida State 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: 17/10

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clfenwi
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Florida State 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: 17/10

#1 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:58 am

Press release

Recall that that do to resolution limitations, the model doesn't predict major hurricanes.

Last year the model nailed the number of named storms and was off by one on hurricanes.
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Blown Away
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Re: Florida State 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: 17/10

#2 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:21 am

:uarrow: Do they predict target areas?
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Re: Florida State 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: 17/10

#3 Postby clfenwi » Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:38 am

No, they do not predict target areas. That is probably because their hindcast testing showed that the model showed much fewer landfalls than actually occurred. The research paper Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Simulations describing the model has the gory details.
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#4 Postby KWT » Wed Jun 02, 2010 2:19 pm

Yet another forecast that is calling for high teens type numbers, quite the consensus between say 16-19NS now...
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#5 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:40 pm

Well at least it's not up to 23 like NOAA is predicting.

KWT wrote:Yet another forecast that is calling for high teens type numbers, quite the consensus between say 16-19NS now...
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#6 Postby Scorpion » Wed Jun 02, 2010 3:46 pm

Shear is well below normal:

Image
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Re: Florida State 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: 17/10

#7 Postby bvigal » Thu Jun 03, 2010 9:44 am

ugh! I don't think I can read any more 'it could be as bad/worse' than 2005. I'm ready to move back to the mountains and shovel snow for 8 months.... :cry:
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