Models show low pressure forming in the NE Gulf of Mexico

[Cyclenall]

Add the ukmet to the models

How did you get that UKMET output? The website recently changed to remove the FSU ones that weren't active and I also noticed the message stating the UKMET model was no longer being shown there was also gone. Did it return?

What did the ECMWF show this time?

[KWT]

Hmmm there is certainly a chance for something to develop from this, I think whatever does try to form will be weak and very messy rainy type system, probably a TD/weatk TS system...

Of course such a system would be bad for the coast with regards to the oil, esp as the models seem to track the system W then WNW towards NO.

Actually got decent agreement with this one, if we start to get something going down there we'll see an invest quite quickly I'd imagine.

[ronjon]

Looks like low pressure is developing this morning about 50 miles west of Clearwater FL based on TPA RAD. Look for an Invest starting today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[ronjon]

NWS Tallahasee AFD:

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACTUALLY MAKE
IT AND WHETHER OR NOT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 00Z NAM
DOES DEVELOP A WEAK LOW OFFSHORE OF TAMPA LATE FRIDAY AND PUSHES IT
WESTWARD. IN THIS SCENARIO DRY ENE FLOW MAKES IT INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND PRECIP IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
COMPARED TO THE 18Z RUN...THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE
AND IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER. THE 00Z GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A LOW OFFSHORE OF
TAMPA ON FRIDAY BUT MOVES IT MUCH SLOWER TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE 00Z GFS
PRECIPITATION FIELDS SHOWS THAT A DISPROPORTIONATE AMOUNT OF THE
PRECIP FORECAST BY THE GFS WITH THIS LOW IS NON-CONVECTIVE
PRECIP...WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND MAKES ITS SOLUTION
SUSPECT. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z RGEM HAS A 1009 MB LOW WELL SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THE PREVIOUS 12Z ECMWF HAD ONLY A VERY WEAK
LOW DEVELOPING WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OFFSHORE OR
JUST BARELY TOUCHING THE BEACHES ON SATURDAY. THE 21Z SREF HAD
SEVERAL MEMBERS DEVELOPING LOWS OF VARIOUS INTENSITIES PUSHING
WESTWARD AS WELL.

SO...WHAT TO BELIEVE? THERE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG MODEL SUPPORT
OF AT LEAST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING LATE TODAY AND PUSHING WESTWARD
INTO THE GULF. MORE IMPORTANTLY...LATE NIGHT RADAR SEEMS TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF SMALL SCALE MESO-LOW OVER DIXIE COUNTY DRIFTING VERY
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH EVEN A FEW BANDING FEATURES OCCASIONALLY
PRESENT. AS A RESULT...AM BUYING INTO THE IDEA OF A WEAK LOW MOVING
WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT AM NOT CURRENTLY
BUYING THE GFS PRECIPITATION FIELDS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUE MENTIONED ABOVE. IN TERMS OF THE ACTUAL FORECAST...THIS
ACTUALLY AMOUNTS TO A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH
A NORTH/SOUTH POP GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. FOR TEMPS...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MET
GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE MAV MAY BE A TOUCH TOO LOW ON TEMPS WITH ITS
WETTER INLAND SOLUTION THAT IS NOT BEING FOLLOWED AT THIS TIME.

[KWT]

Looks like low pressure is developing this morning about 50 miles west of Clearwater FL based on TPA RAD. Look for an Invest starting today.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

Oh yeah without a doubt there is some turning there, so we may well have an MLC developing with this area. If this is the case then given the models are keen on weak development I'd imagine an invest may well declared.

I think this has a decent chance of being a weak messy TD/TS. Models track it generally west so it does have time to do stuff...maybe a system like Edouard from 08.

[wxman57]

There is 50+ kts of shear across the Gulf now (strong north winds aloft). Development looks unlikely. What I'm looking at is the wave in the central Tropical Atlantic along 39W. That's the feature the models are developing in the western Caribbean late next week.

[Nimbus]

Very tropical in the Tampa bay area the last couple days. The radar is showing an area of rain dropping south off the west coast of Florida this morning. Looks like there will be some ridging over Florida to push whatever develops WNW. It usually seems to take a long time for these systems to develop from slow turning radar echoes to a system with closed circulation. I'll check back tonight.

[ronjon]

There is 50+ kts of shear across the Gulf now (strong north winds aloft). Development looks unlikely. What I'm looking at is the wave in the central Tropical Atlantic along 39W. That's the feature the models are developing in the western Caribbean late next week.

I agree wxman57 there is strong shear aloft now but I think conditions may improve somewhat over the next 48 hrs. I'm not expecting anything but a weak feature but a closed circulation none-the-less. 00Z ECM forecast indicates better upper level conditions in 48 hrs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[rockyman]

Shear along the west coast of Florida has decreased from 40 knots to 20-30 knots over the past 12 hours...and is decreasing

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[KWT]

There is 50+ kts of shear across the Gulf now (strong north winds aloft). Development looks unlikely. What I'm looking at is the wave in the central Tropical Atlantic along 39W. That's the feature the models are developing in the western Caribbean late next week.

I agree wxman57 there is strong shear aloft now but I think conditions may improve somewhat over the next 48 hrs. I'm not expecting anything but a weak feature but a closed circulation none-the-less. 00Z ECM forecast indicates better upper level conditions in 48 hrs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Whilst I do agree with Wxman57 that the wave he mentions maybe the next big one to watch, I think the fact the shear decares and the fact there is clear turning on radar suggests this at least has a shot at developing, esp if it can stay offshore for long enough.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE...CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS LOW
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[weatherSnoop]

From the NWS Tampa forecast disco...


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PATTERN IN THE 500 MB LEVEL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A WEAKENED RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL KEEP HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE
AREA AND THUS HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY
CONVECTION AS WELL AS POSSIBLY LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND SO WILL CONTINUE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH POPS. OVERALL THERE WERE LITTLE CHANGES FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

[TexasSam]

Houston talks about this too...:

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT FRI JUL 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH MORE SHRA
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF. 6-11 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES YESTERDAY STILL POSE A PROBLEM WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUING TODAY. GPS IPWV SHOWING 2.4" TO 2.8" OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR STORMS TODAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL
PLUME OVER TEXAS AS PART OF ALEX`S REMAINS. WEAK BOUNDARY EVIDENT
IN EARLIER SURFACE PLOTS LOOKS TO BE MOVING INLAND AND THIS IS
PROBABLY GOOD NEWS FOR THE HARD HIT AREAS YESTERDAY. PLAN TO KEEP
THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS MAINLY THE I-10 COUNTIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NOON. FASTER STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD LOWER THE FLOODING THREAT
SOMEWHAT SO LONG AS IT DOESN`T START TRAINING OVER THE HEAVILY
POPULATED AREAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SHOULD HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORED THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH SATURDAY WITH THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS STILL AVAILABLE SO HAVE NUDGED UP POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS DIVERGING WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN LOWER-MID LEVEL DRYING
FROM THE GULF SUNDAY WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT TRACKING SW TOWARD
THE LOWER COAST SO AM EXPECTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY BUT THEN
IT GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A LOW
WEST ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NE GULF. THE ECMWF
PLACES A VERY WEAK CIRCULATION IN THE UTCW...THE NAM SOUTH OF
HOUMA LA AND THE GFS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. WEAK SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SUSPECTED LOW WARRANTS CLOSE MONITORING OF THE
REGION BUT THE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS N TEXAS SHOULD FAVOR THE
SYSTEM NOT GETTING THIS FAR WEST...A DEFINITE STAY TUNED. AND THEN
AS IF THAT ISN`T BAD ENOUGH...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL WORKING A
TROPICAL WAVE INTO A TIZZY IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY
UNFORTUNATELY THE SAME UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE FLATTENING AND
SHIFTING EAST OPENING UP THE WESTERN GULF TO THIS WAVE/TROPICAL
SYSTEM. INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS LIKE THE 18Z GFS WHICH
HAS IT NEARING THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY THE 9TH. IT IS STILL TO
EARLY TO HANG A HAT ON THIS SOLUTION BUT SHOULD STILL POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOMETHING OF INTEREST IN THE WESTERN GULF. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE COMING DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE THINS
AND UPPER RIDGING CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

10% chance, does that make it a invest?

[rockyman]

Early visible loops show the circulation over the extreme NE Gomex...in the dry air:

Visible:


Water Vapor:

[xironman]

You can see it on radar as well. But dry air + shear = probably no development.

[ronjon]

I wouldn't write it off because of conditions now. There is strong vorticity and abundant moisture just to the south. Conditions will gradually improve and most of these home grown systems take time to transition because their original state (i.e. decaying frontal systems) is mid-latitude origin. This is why they struggle with major development due to shear, dry air, and land proximity - although they can become tropical cyclones with time - either sub-tropical or pure tropical. Looks like the LLC is just over extreme north Apalachee Bay.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[tolakram]

Invest 95L ... unexpected.

[KWT]

Yeah I'd agree with thatRonjon, you can see the circulation where you say it is.

That being said all of the decent convection that was present over the NE Gulf seems to be drawing southwards. I still wouldn't rule it out developing though because the N.Gulf has a habit of producing these sorts of systems, though very rarely go stronger then 45-50kts...and I think even that is very much a push in this system.

[southerngale]

Please continue the discussions in the 95L thread in the Active Storms forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108440