UL Winds Still Wreaking Havoc

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see the high forecasted numbers of Hurricanes coming this year. Even though ENSO has swung neutral and headed into a La Nina I think the relaxing of the UL winds lag behind this effect. So far this season we've had 2 named storms and both were highly impacted by UL Wind Shear. I know we are not yet into the meat of the season but from a pure numbers of storms standpoint from here out required to meet the forecasts I've seen I just don't think it will happen. I think the forecasts get trimmed back a good bit.

[MGC]

Dean, I think it is premature to write off the season. 1969 and 2004 come to mind where the season started slowly and ended up above average. Two named storms at this juncture is slightly above normal. Everybody is expecting another 2005. 2005 was likely a once in a lifetime season......MGC

[HurricaneJoe22]

The storms will come. Patience, grasshopper.

[RL3AO]

Its July...

[BigA]

This thread inspired me to spend my afternoon calculating some statistics from the last 60 hurricane seasons (1950-2009). Below are the fruits of this labor.

On average, the time before August1 sees 1.7 named storms, 0.7 hurricanes, and 0.2 major hurricanes.

For La Nina years, the numbers are 1.36 named storms, 0.5 hurricanes, and 0.1 major hurricanes

For all years, the percentage of cyclones that form on or after August 1 are the following:

Tropical Storms: 85% Hurricanes: 89% Major Hurricanes 93%

For La Nina years the numbers are:

Tropical storms: 88% Hurricanes 92% Major Hurricanes: 98%

(This includes all storms in which the first advisory was issued on or after August1, no matter when the storm achieved tropical storm, hurricane, or major hurricane status. For example, 2004's hurricane Alex would be considered a major hurricane that formed before August 1, since it's first advisory was issued on July 31, even thoug it became a major hurricane in August.)


Let us wait and be patient., for now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I can understand where Dean is coming from. You like to be able to at least SEE a pattern transition underway and there's nothing out that for as far as you can see that signals that things are going to start getting active in a couple of weeks.

Yes, it's still July, but August is only a week away.....

[Macrocane]

Well, the GFS and Euro are seeing that change in pattern and the NAO is expected to become more negative, we'll have to wait and see if the forecast verifies, and let's remember that the activity starts to peak in the 2nd or 3rd week of August.

[ConvergenceZone]

What is the GFS and Euro are seeing? Maybe I missed the post on this?

[Scorpion]

It's not about if, but when.

[Macrocane]

What is the GFS and Euro are seeing? Maybe I missed the post on this?

The GFS and Euro have been showing stronger tropical waves coming from Africa a sign of a more favorable African monsoon and less SAL, and the GFS also has a weaker Azores-Bermuda high and that means a more negative NAO hence less SAL.

[KWT]

So far this season we've had arguably 95L which should have been a depression at least...TD2 which was right on the cusp of being a TS (the NHC only held back due to presentation...) so we could have been on 4/1/0 instead of being on 2/1/0...and we go from all these nonense posts about 'slow' and stuff to we are 'hyperactive'...

Anyway the pattern isn't great but as we saw in goodness knows how many seasons we could have 0 or 1 storms at the moment and those seasons often didn't really ramp up until 15th-25th August...and thats weeks away yet, in fact the best part of a month away!

Didn't mid August last year show fast things can kick off in semi-favourable conditions (3NS in the space of 36hrs) and so things can turn on like a switch, we don't need weeks fior changes, they can happen in days sometimes.

Finally, imagine 1961 for a second...we sit in late August with 1/0/0 and no signs of the 2nd NS, I can't imagine what people would do on this board in such a solution...that season ended up with average NS but multiple majors and category-5s...yet I'm sure everyone on here would have been moaning about how slow it was before September...

[cycloneye]

[SouthFloridawx]

Speaking of Upper Level Winds.. Anyone notice that giant honking Trough in the Eastern Atlantic, From 10N to 40N and from 3OW to 65W? That's pretty big!

WV Loop Atlantic: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[srainhoutx]

Looks as if SAL has decreased...

[Dean4Storms]

The UL winds though do not appear to be relaxing, this is what I'm getting at. We are at the end of July and I know the meat of the season doesn't really get into full swing until mid-August, but unless the UL winds become more favorable I think the numbers get lowered by a couple storms.

[RL3AO]

We're probably looking at something closer to 16 storms then 18 or 20, but as someone mentioned, if recon finds a FL winds 1 or 2 knots higher in the GOM with TD 2 and named that system in the Atlantic earlier this year we'd be looking out for Earl right now and this thread instead would be talking about if we could reach the Greek alphabet.

[hurricaneCW]

UL winds will get favorable, maybe they are lagging a bit due to the rapid transition toward a La Nina, but they'll become favorable. They've been pretty normal up to this point. Dry air is more of a concern because storms can develop if there is some shear, but they won't develop it there's a lot of dry air out there. Since the dry air is decreasing, it will make getting a storm more likely.

[ConvergenceZone]

So far this season we've had arguably 95L which should have been a depression at least...TD2 which was right on the cusp of being a TS (the NHC only held back due to presentation...) so we could have been on 4/1/0 instead of being on 2/1/0...and we go from all these nonense posts about 'slow' and stuff to we are 'hyperactive'...

Hey KWT, the only part I don't agree with you is that we are always going to have "almosts" every season...I'm sure that every season would have had much higher numbers if you count all of the "almosts" in every season..

I don't think anyone is screaming season cancel. I think what we are seeing here is due to the extreme amount of hype that has been building around this season.... Remember back in June when they waves were already looking strong and many of us were saying, "wow, look at all of this insane convection. Can you imagine what July is going to be like."?
Now whether it's the calm before the storm or not, it's too early to say. But I think we will know by the end of next week. Because by the end of next week, we will be moving into the 2nd week of August and so if the conditions look the same by the end of NEXT week(not this week) with no storm on the horizon, then I think we will need to revaluate the numbers for sure.
Expectations are high for the quantity expected this year due to hype....