EPAC : Record June, Dead July

[HURAKAN]

As we all know, the month of June for the EPAC was record-breaking, with 4 tropical cyclones, 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes and 1 category 5. That gave the basin an ERA of 37.22.

Now, one month later, the basin's ON switch seems to have been turned to OFF. Only one depression and no named storms. That got me thinking, when was the last time there was no 35+ knots storms in July in the EPAC?

For this basin, history only goes back to 1949, so the record is limited. Nonetheless, only 1953 had no storms in July. That season had 4 systems, which to me sounds iffy at best because even in low years, the EPAC is active.

Finally, we can say that if there are no named storms in this month, this will be the 1st July of no named storms since the satellite era.

[Macrocane]

It's like the EPAC knew that July was going to be hostile and wanted to take advantage of the favorable conditions in June. The models have been showing a tropical storm in about 5 or 6 days if it doesn't develop by July 31 this will be the least active July on record in the EPAC and one of the most inactive July worldwide.

[MWatkins]

Now that's interesting if not suprising.

La Nina is cranking away in the East Pac...so to some extent I am not suprised at the lack of activity.

However, if numbers are significantly off globally, that would throw a wrench into the above average active Atlantic season idea.

Then again, we're not seeing any frontal development in the Atlantic which tends to account for most of the early season activity...and in 2006 and 2007 we had frontal development in July (vs. tropical development both times this year).

I wonder if global conditions that would suppress activity in other basins are correlated to busy Atlantic years (controlling for the east pac)...

MW

[Chacor]

You do mean ACE and not ERA, right Hurakan?

The WPac picked up in July slightly with two typhoons, so it's not exactly been dead worldwide.

[HURAKAN]

You do mean ACE and not ERA, right Hurakan?

The WPac picked up in July slightly with two typhoons, so it's not exactly been dead worldwide.

LOL, baseball got there somehow!!! Yes, ACE.

[RL3AO]

That gave the basin an ERA of 37.22.

Too much baseball?

[HURAKAN]

That gave the basin an ERA of 37.22.

Too much baseball?

Too much baseball doesn't exist!!!

Btw, that would be a horrible ERA!!!

[brunota2003]

Is an ERA of 0.00 for the EPAC for this month better?!

MW --> I would imagine that is possible. I think I heard, there is only so much energy available worldwide...much like a computer's RAM. If 100% is being used, there is no more to give out.