Hot, Dry Southeast & Florida & Hurricane Season

[TampaFl]

What I am concerned with is how hot & dry it has been so far this summer and what implications this has on the hurricane season in the Southeast US & Florida :

So far this summer the Southeast & Florida have been dominated by a very strong 500MB Ridge that has been very persistant. This has put a cap on the normal summer time pattern for afternoon/evening thunderstorms here in the Tampa Bay Area and West Central Florida. Rainfall was below normal for May, June & so far July at TIA (Tampa International Airport). And with August & September left in the rainy season if we do not get at least normal to above rainfall for these next 2 months we are going to be hurting going into the dry season (Oct - May)with the La Nina winter that is expected. La Nina winters typicaly are warm & very dry here in West Central Florida compared to El Nino winters. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=tampabayelninopage.

My question is this: Is there going to be a break in the overall weather pattern over the Southeastern US & Florida in regards to the 500MB high that has been so persistant? And what implications does this have for the rest of the hurricane season for the Southeast & Florida. I would think that if the high persists through August & September would that not be good for Florida as it would steer the storms away from the state plus though continue our hot, dry weather & to not bring us our normal summer time rainy pattern that we typically see this time of year. We have had so far this summer several days where we get our "normal" afternoon/evening thunderstorms then we can go 5-7 sometimes 10 days with no rain at all.

Thoughts and comments welcomed espeacially from any pro mets out there.

Robert

[ronjon]

Robert, there are indications of a pattern change in the works over the next 2 weeks. The long range GFS and especially the European model are reestablishing troughing over the east coast with this weekend the first trough and another trough by next weekend and beyond. The operational GFS was showing persistent troughing, actually a blocking pattern setting up, with the trough axis over the central gulf coast the second week of August (not a good pattern if you don't want a hurricane impact in FL). The Euro out to 10 days was showing a similar set up. Now these are long range model runs so take it with a grain of salt. The GFS and Euro build back the ridge after this weekend but only for a few days and then return with troughing. We shall see.

[TampaFl]

Thanks Ronjon for the information.

Yes you are correct a trough axis over the Central Gulf is not a good set up for Florida & hurricanes - like in 2004 with Charley. Though that kind of set up could bring in abundant moisture back over the state for some much needed rainfall.

Robert

[Sanibel]

There's an unusual lack of rain here for the middle of rainy season. What I'm worried about is the storms-seek-drought phenomenon occurring and an Atlantic whopper seeking Florida this year. 2004 was bad but Florida hasn't seen an Andrew-type Atlantic storm in 18 years.

[JonathanBelles]

Tampa and St. Pete are both above normal so far in the rainfall and the temperature departments. It has been a very hot year in comparison to normal with average highs around 93-95 instead of 90-92. Daily lows have also been quite high averaging 81-84 degrees. We havent seen the drop in precip, but I think it might be coming. I hate to say it, but it might take another (stonger) tropical cyclone to break this pattern.

[thetruesms]

Over the last two months, Florida as a whole hasn't really been too far off of normal for rain. However, the persistent pattern we've had certainly has created a situation where a few places are rather wet, and some places have been rather dry.

Looking at the most recent drought monitor, Brevard County has slipped into abnormally dry territory (not a big surprise by any means). And if we don't start mixing up where the afternoon convection happens, we could definitely start adding some new areas in the future.