Slow Season?

[neospaceblue]

Like many people before me probably said, 2004 didn't even have a single depression at this point, and they managed to produce the 4th most active season on record since 1950 in terms of ACE with 5 storms striking the state of Florida, two of those within 24 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah I'm not too worried, had we 0 storms right now with nothing on the horizion then I'd start to question it, but we have 2NS already and if we keep pace with 1998 then we'd end up with 15NS...and 1998 didn't get its B storm till the 19th August, I'd suspect we'd be on the D storm by then...

[gatorcane]

Only a couple of days until August and there is nothing really showing high chances of development possibilities. Yeah the models are sniffing out some Cape Verde activity, but hey it is nearly August so no surpise here.

Should we be sitting here by Aug. 15th with lackluster model support, you have to start wondering -- still that is two weeks away and *alot* could change be then. Got to go with something churning in the Atlantic by then (maybe more than one system out there at the same time).

Hitting the NHC forecasted upper-range of 23 systems does seem very much in jeapardy at this point.

[Gustywind]

It took only one hurricane (Georges 1998) to impact Puerto Rico and make people believe that 1998 was very active season. Just one.

Right, excellent reasoning! And may i say: Hugo impacting Guadeloupe in 1989, only one too! Any Guadeloupeans don't want to speak about canes in this period for sure. Let's stay prudent and on our guard is more important than speaking about a slow a strong season and etc. Just one in your face and it's the nigthmare. For us in the islands, just a strong twave could be dramatic and bring bad surprises, we never know in the tropics!

[hurricaneCW]

Again, it's pretty obvious that we won't see 20+ storms this season. I'll be amazed if we do. The only way we get 20+ storms is if we see up to 4 storms in both October and November. It does just take one storm. 1992, like many have stated, was a quiet year, storm-wise. Andrew was all that it took to make it a deadly season. I'm still thinking 14-16, similar activity to 2004, but more powerful storms, Cat 4/5's. Mid August to Mid October is the time when the real season will sprawl over.

[KWT]

Moderate La Nina Climo beats out even record breaking conditions/low pressures in the tropics...Mod La Ninas tend to be in the 12-14NS range though I'd have thought we'd be a touch higher then that this year so maybe 15NS like 2007, simply because we do have 2NS and thats above average for Moderate La Ninas at this stage.

[hurricaneCW]

Where can I find the MJO forecasts?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, it's the 2 week countdown....If nothing in two weeks, the numbers will need to be lowered....There will be no excuse then as we will be in the middle of August...

of course there will always be though who say wait until the end of August, and then wait until the beginning of September etc....

but it's still possible that we might get development within the next 2 weeks.....

[Stephanie]

Yep, it's the 2 week countdown....If nothing in two weeks, the numbers will need to be lowered....There will be no excuse then as we will be in the middle of August...
of course there will always be though who say wait until the end of August, and then wait until the beginning of September etc....

but it's still possible that we might get development within the next 2 weeks.....

IMHO, I'd have to agree with that.

[KWT]

Yep, it's the 2 week countdown....If nothing in two weeks, the numbers will need to be lowered....There will be no excuse then as we will be in the middle of August...

of course there will always be though who say wait until the end of August, and then wait until the beginning of September etc....

but it's still possible that we might get development within the next 2 weeks.....

Yeah your probably right but in hindsight the forecasters are probably way too high in the first place, there is a very good reason why a moderate La Nina or a La Nina below -0.8C have not gone above 15NS before....

That being said take a look at 1961...didn't get the 2nd NS till 2nd SEPTEMBER....and we ended up with not just the monster cat-5 Carla but also the powerful cat-5 Hattie, as well as a close shave with major hurricane Esthar.

[Frank2]

Like many people before me probably said, 2004 didn't even have a single depression at this point, [but it was the] 4th most active season on record since 1950 in terms of ACE with 5 storms striking the state of Florida, two of those within 24 hours.

True (ugh)...

[srainhoutx]

Where can I find the MJO forecasts?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip ... /mjo.shtml

[Portastorm]

Where can I find the MJO forecasts?

Right here:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml