NOAA August Update=14-20 named storms

[cycloneye]

In the May outlook,they had the spread between 14-23 named storms. I say they shrink the spread to between 14-18.

[KWT]

Yeah that sounds pretty reasonable to me Cycloneye, I'd imagine say 13-18NS will be the range they will have.

The key is whether this current set-up shifts, if it holds then we won't be quite as busy as some of the agencies call for, esp on the MH side of things...but all depends on whether that TUTT decides to lift out.

No reason yet to think things won't become real busy between 15th August and 15th October as normally occurs in La Nina peaks.

[HURAKAN]

* 14-20 Named Storms,
* 8-12 Hurricanes
* 4-6 Major Hurricanes
* An ACE range of 170%-260% of the median.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... cane.shtml

[SFLcane]

Slight decrease in numbers BUT still predicting a very busy season. I fully expect a quick ramp up in tc activity during the next week or two as we approach the (real) season.

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic of the numbers from May and today.

[Stormcenter]

That 14-20 number is a pretty wide spread IMO.
Anyway it's going to need to start ramping up pretty soon to reach that 20 number.

[cycloneye]

This is why they reduced the upper extent from 23 to 20.

These ranges include the two tropical storms and one hurricane seen to date. During June – July 2010, two named storms (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie) formed in the Atlantic basin. The pre-season outlook issued in late May reflected the possibility of even more early-season activity. As a result, the upper ends of the predicted ranges have been reduced.

[Macrocane]

Joe Bastardi released a very interesting video today, he says that a complete update will be out in August 18 but he has not changed his mind about a very active season, here is todays video:

http://www.accuweather.com/video/73146202001/no-changes-to-my-hurricane-idea.asp

[Nimbus]

I've been enjoying the calm before the storm. We've had a couple weak systems to track and predict without any serious threat to anybody. The peak of the season will be here all too soon so get caught up on your sleep now.

[hurricaneCW]

JB definitely hooked me back in. I believed what he said. I still don't think it's going to be as active as most forecasts say, but I'm almost convinced that the real action will start the 2nd half of August. I'd rather not see too many shear messes like Bonnie/Colin. The forecasts are also really banking that October and November will be far more active than normal. Then again, even seeing 1-2 storms in November is considered more active especially if one of them is a hurricane/major hurricane.

[KWT]

Oh yeah if things aren't getting going by the 20-25th August then I'd be very surprised because thats the time when both Climo and La Ninas typically really ramp up...

Still I think 20NS is very optimistic, I'd be amazed if we got that high now, indeed it would now need activity pretty close to 2005 levels to get that high for the rest of the season.

[Ivanhater]

I really think October and November will be active as well with this La Nina and lower pressures in the ATL...18-20 will not be hard pressed to get to with a late season.

[KWT]

Hmmm 18 is a stretch if you ask me, it can happen but its going to need things to really fit into place in terms of the upswing of the MJO coming at the right time in relation to everything else.

From now on the only season that had enough storms to make 18NS from where we are would be if we got 2005...every other single season since 1995 would fall short...and inded I think only 69/05 and possibly 33 type numbers from now on would be enough for 18NS.

[Ivanhater]

How would it be hard to reach 18-20 names storms?

2004 had 16 named storms and didn't start til August 1st.

2010 had had 3 named storms already. Likely the 4th very soon.

2004 also shut down early because of a transition to an El Nino.

2010 is in a La Nina and will likely go on later.

[KWT]

Yeah true to an extent but I'm just looking at the fact that out of 15 years, only one, 2005 managed to get the numbers required from now on to reach the lower end of the range...1998/2004 is probably the closest next one which is very likely going to be a good match indeed...

14-16NS IMO would be the more realistic range from now. Climo can only take us so far and who really knows, there probably isn't on a practical level much difference between 15 and 18NS most of the time.

BTW, remember 2004 was El Nino that was west based, and with that you tend to get stronger MJO pluses come through so with the warm waters and actually favourable conditions combined with a very powerful positive MJO wave, its not all that shocking the season blew up like it did...
So you could argue the thing that shut it down early caused it to explode the way it did...also no surprise 1969 also followed the exact same trend with a very similar background set-up and a weak El nino.

[wxman57]

You have to understand what NOAA is doing by saying 14-20 named storms. They are predicting the middle value, 17, but they don't want to just predict a single number so they include a spread of 1 standard deviation. They're not calculating the numbers 14 or 20, the range simply takes their predicted number and surrounds it by values 1 standard deviation either side.

[frederic79]

Some have suggested that 2007 is an appropriate analog for this year, considering a Nino to Nina transition and mentioned a possible late season ramp-up of activity. Looking at 2007, there were only two named storms in August, including one hurricane. However, in September there were EIGHT named storms, including four hurricanes (Felix became a depression on August 31st and was named on September 1st). If those numbers reflect anything close to what we can expect this year for the Atlantic basin, we are in for one wild September. That would help explain NOAA's reasoning for keeping the numbers high.