2010 Tropical Weather Outlook verification stats

[RL3AO]

I took the TWO's for the Atlantic this year and tracked all the times they said "xx% chance of a tropical cyclone in 48 hours" and see how accurate they've been this year. This is only for the Atlantic. I might do the Pacific later. I plan on updating throughout the season.

Yes means number that developed within 48 hours and no means didn't develop within 48 hours. The last number is the verification percentage.

Ex. When they said there was a 30% chance of development, a storm developed 25% of the time, which is a good forecast, but on the 50% chance, it only developed 14%. However, this early in the season, there is a lot of statistical noise.

Code: Select all

   Yes    No   
0%   0   34   0%
10%   0   66   0%
20%   0   38   0%
30%   5   15   25%
40%   9   6   60%
50%   2   12   14%
60%   6   3   67%
70%   3   0   100%
80%   3   0   100%
90   3   0   100%
100   1   0   100%



[clfenwi]

Great stuff, please keep up with it. I had thought of doing this a couple of weeks back, but have been too lazy to dig up archives. I've been regretting not keeping track starting on June 1. However, you got me covered !

Like you said, with the low sample size (compared to what it's going to end up being at the end of the season), it's noisy; however,the "discontinuity" at 50%, is kind of interesting. We'll see if that ends up being a random anomaly or a pattern of the storms that end up developing "blowing by" that number.

[RL3AO]

If they go 50% for Colin we'll have to write it off.

[supercane]

Does this include 92L around July 4, which briefly had a 90% chance of development if I recall right?

[RL3AO]

Does this include 92L around July 4, which briefly had a 90% chance of development if I recall right?

It went from 0% to 60% to 0% on July 5th, and yes its included.

[supercane]

Fast response, and great work! Hopefully as the season progresses we should see a monotonic increase in actual development as the development probability increases. The 50% discontinuity probably will disappear by season's end.

[RL3AO]

Through the Re-development of Colin as well as fixing a few things from Early July.

Code: Select all

   Yes    No   
0   0   35   0%
10   2   68   3%
20   2   46   4%
30   5   14   26%
40   11   6   65%
50   3   11   21%
60   6   4   60%
70   4   0   100%
80   3   0   100%
90   3   0   100%
100   1   0   100%