2:05 pm EDT - CV train may be rolling soon enough - (NHC)

[Stormsfury]

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16W
WITH AN 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N. THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES
AROUND THE LOW AND IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR FORECAST...
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS AND COMPUTER MODEL GENESIS
FORECASTS. CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W.

A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS IN THE NE ATLC NEAR 25N23W. EASTERLIES
ARE NOW ACROSS THE ATLC E OF THE SHEAR AXIS NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM E TO W. THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME SINCE MID JULY THAT 200 MB HEIGHTS ARE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IN MOST OF THE BASIN... A SIGN THAT A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ANY TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE E ATLC COULD BE OPENING...

[Steve H.]

Excellent post...thanks for sharing.